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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--January 6

Jan 06, 2012

Friday, January 6--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

Note: I am out of the office this morning. My friend and fellow analyst/trader Ken
Seehusen produced my morning report. Ken's style is a bit different than mine, but I think
you'll also benefit from Ken's work.--Jim

The STOCK INDEXES

The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November’s
low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December’s low,
December’s high crossing at 2339.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 2276.27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 2347.50. Second resistance is November’s
high crossing at 2394.25. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2296.52.
Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2276.26.

The March S&P 500 index was slightly higher in overnight trading. The high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off
December’s low, November’s high crossing at 1282.40 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1242.52 would confirm that a short-term
top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 1279.80. Second
resistance is November’s high crossing at 1282.40. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 1261.76. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
1242.52.

INTEREST RATES

March T-bonds were lower in overnight trading as it extends this week’s decline. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins
trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 141-28
would renew the decline off December’s high while opening the door for a possible test
of December’s low later this month. If March renews last week’s rally, September’s high
crossing at 146-12 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday’s high
crossing at 144-23. Second resistance is September’s high crossing at 146-12. First
support is the reaction low crossing at 141-28. Second support is December’s low
crossing at 139-24.

ENERGY MARKETS

February crude oil was higher in overnight trading as it consolidates some of Thursday’s
decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off
December’s low, the 75% retracement level of 2011-decline crossing at 104.84 is the
next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.90 would
temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Wednesday’s high crossing at
103.74. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2011-decline crossing at
104.84. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 100.87. Second support is
the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.90.

CURRENCIES

The March Dollar was lower in overnight trading as it consolidates some of Thursday’s
rally. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but turning bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week’s rally, December’s high
crossing at 81.41 then the 62% retracement level of the 2010-2011-decline on the weekly
continuation chart crossing at 82.89 are the next upside targets. Closes below Tuesday’s
low crossing at 79.83 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is December’s high crossing at 81.41. Second resistance is the 62%
retracement level of the 2010-2011-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at
82.89. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 79.83. Second support is the reaction
low crossing at 79.55.

GRAINS

March corn was higher due to short covering in overnight trading as it consolidates some
of Thursday’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. I am looking for
March corn to drift sideways to lower into the January 12th supply-demand report as it
consolidates some of the rally off December’s low. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 6.17 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If
March extends the rally off this month’s low, the 50% retracement level of the August-
December decline crossing at 6.82 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is
Tuesday’s high crossing at 6.64 1/4.Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the
August-December decline crossing at 6.82 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 6.40 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
6.17 3/4.

March wheat was higher due to short covering in overnight trading as it consolidates
some of this week’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a
short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing
at 6.18 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the
rally off December’s low, the 25% retracement level of last year’s decline crossing at
6.81 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 6.70 3/4.
Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at 6.81 1/4.
First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.18 1/4. Second support is
December’s low crossing at 5.77 1/4.

March soybeans were higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of
this week’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening
when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought
but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. If March extends the rally off this month’s low, the 38% retracement level of the
August-December decline crossing at 12.46 1/2 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.69 3/4 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the
August-December decline crossing at 12.46 1/2. Second resistance is October’s high
crossing at 12.90. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.04 3/4.
Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.69 3/4.

 

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