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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--July 12

Jul 12, 2012

Thursday, July 12--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

It’s a moderately “risk-off” trading day in the market place
so far Thursday. This follows Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC
minutes from the Federal Reserve that confirmed a sluggish
U.S. economy, but provided no fresh clues on any upcoming
Fed monetary-policy-easing moves. Most market bulls wanted
the Fed to signal it’s embarking on another round of
quantitative easing—nicknamed QE3. European stock markets
were lower as the Euro currency hit a fresh two-year low
against the U.S. dollar. In other overnight news, Asian
stock markets were weaker on fears that fresh China second-
quarter GDP data due out Friday will be downbeat. On a
slightly positive note coming out of the European Union,
Italian government shorter-term borrowing costs have backed
off a bit, which hints that the EU debt crisis has
stabilized, for the moment at least.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,339.40 and then at this week’s high of 1,356.30. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at the overnight low of
1,324.10 and then at 1,315.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
4.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,569.75 and
then at Wednesday’s high of 2,589.25. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 2,541.75 and then at
2,525.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,400 and then at Tuesday’s low of 12,350. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
12,500 and then at 12,550. Shorter-term moving averages are
neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
Wednesday’s high of 151 24/32 and then at 152 even. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 151 even and then at the overnight
low of 150 22/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 134.25.0 and then at the June high of
134.30.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of
134.10.5 and then at 134.00.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit a fresh six-
week high overnight. The greenback bulls have upside near-
term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at June high of 84.00 and
then at 84.25. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 83.58 and then at 83.25. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower in early trading. In August Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
$85.00 and then at $86.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $84.00 and then at this week’s low of
$83.65. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed in overnight trading. In the grain
markets, “Corn is King.” Other grain markets tend to follow
King Corn. December corn futures prices on Wednesday closed
nearer the session low after hitting a fresh contract and
four-year high early on, following an extremely bullish and
surprising USDA report that dropped the national U.S. corn
average by 20 bushels an acre! The corn market popped
sharply and then sold off sharply, prices did finish off
the daily low. However, any time a market cannot rally on
fresh, very bullish fundamental news, that’s a solid clue
that a market top is in place or very close to it.
Wednesday’s price action in corn also produced a
technically bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar
chart, which is also an early technical clue that a market
top is in place. How corn closes this Friday will be
telling. A weekly low close on Friday, or close to it,
would be another nail in the corn bulls’ coffin.
 

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