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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--July 16

Jul 16, 2012

Monday, July 16--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

It’s just a bit of a “risk-off” trading day in the market
place in early trading Monday. In overnight news, China’s
chief central bank official said China’s economic recovery
is not yet stable and sluggish growth could continue for a
while. Reports also said the European Central Bank has
shifted its stance on how to work to rescue troubled
European banks. The ECB reportedly now wants to allow senior
bank bond-holders to be the first to absorb losses. The ECB
reports did push up Spanish and Italian bond yields Monday.
But the big news of the week for the market place will be
Fed Chairman Bernanke’s speech before the U.S. Senate on
Tuesday morning. Traders and investors will be closely
scrutinizing Bernanke’s remarks for any fresh clues on
easing of U.S. monetary policy forthcoming. Many believe the
U.S. central bank will embark on another round of
quantitative easing of monetary policy in the near future—
QE3. Most markets would likely react in a bearish way of the
Fed offers no fresh hints on QE3 forthcoming.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of
1,356.30 and then at the July high of 1,374.90. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at 1,341.00 and then at
Friday’s low of 1,329.20. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at Friday’s high of 2,584.75 and then
at 2,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
2,550.00 and then at Friday’s low of 2,537.50. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,650 and then at 12,600. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of
12,715 and then at last week’s high of 12,765. Shorter-term
moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last
week’s high of 151 28/32 and then at 152 even. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 151 6/32 and
then at 151 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
June high of 134.30.5 and then at 131.08.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at last week’s low of 134.10.5 and
then at 134.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are modestly higher in early U.S. trading. The
greenback bulls still have some upside near-term technical
momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 83.74 and then at last
week’s high of 83.98. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 83.33 and then at last week’s low of 83.13.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker in early trading. In August
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at last week’s high of $87.61 and then at $88.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at $86.00
and then at $85.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were sharply higher in overnight trading as the
weekend produced no significant rainfall in the U.S. Corn 
Belt and the region is bracing for very hot and mostly dry
weather this week. The major drought in the central U.S. is
worsening with no significant relief in sight. Last week’s
key reversals down in corn and soybean futures have now
been rendered moot. It’s my bias that the grain futures
markets will top out in the near term—possibly even this
week.
 

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