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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--July 17

Jul 17, 2012

Tuesday, July 17--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The major news event of the week for the market place will
very likely be Fed Chairman Bernanke’s speech before the
U.S. Senate this morning. Traders and investors will be
closely scrutinizing Bernanke’s remarks for any fresh clues
on easing of U.S. monetary policy forthcoming. Many believe
the U.S. central bank will embark on another round of
quantitative easing of monetary policy in the near future—
QE3. Most markets will likely react in a bearish way if the
Fed offers no fresh hints on QE3 coming soon. In overnight
news, European stocks were firmer despite another weak
German ZEW economic reading, which was in line with trade
expectations. Yields were down sharply on a Spanish Treasury
bill auction Tuesday. Moody’s ratings agency again
downgraded several more Italian banks’ credit ratings late
Monday, but the market place took it in stride.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of
1,356.30 and then at the July high of 1,374.90. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at the overnight low of
1,346.40 and then at 1,329.20. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at 2,598.00 and then at
2,615.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at Monday’s low
of 2,561.25 and then at 2,550.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,648 and then at Monday’s low of 12,630. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
12,715 and then at last week’s high of 12,765. Shorter-term
moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 151 24/32 and then at Monday’s high of 152
10/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at 151 even and then at
150 22/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 134.27.5 and then at Monday’s contract
high of 135.00.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low
of 134.17.5 and then at 134.11.5. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The greenback
bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at 83.50 and then at Monday’s high of 83.77.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 83.03
and then at 82.75. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer in early trading. In August
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at the July high of $88.98 and then at $90.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at $88.00
and then at $87.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed in active overnight trading, on profit
taking amid the major drought in the U.S. that is now said
to be the most severe since 1956. And the drought is
worsening by the day with no significant relief in sight.
But it’s still my bias that the grain futures markets will
top out in the near term—possibly even this week—even
though crop conditions will likely continue to deteriorate
for some time to come.
 

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