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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--July 18

Jul 18, 2012

Wednesday, July 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

It’s a risk-off trading day in the market place so far
Wednesday. Traders are still digesting Fed Chairman Ben
Bernanke’s downbeat semi-annual monetary policy speech
before the U.S. Senate on Tuesday. Traders and investors
were generally disappointed the Fed chief’s remarks did not
include any fresh clues on easing of U.S. monetary policy
coming soon. Bernanke speaks to a U.S. House committee
Wednesday. Many still believe the U.S. central bank will
embark on another round of quantitative easing of monetary
policy in the near future—QE3. In overnight news, Germany
sold two-year bonds at a negative yield for the first time.
This underscores the extreme risk-averse trader and investor
attitudes in the market place, and especially in the
European Union.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at Tueday’s high of 1,360.50
and then at the July high of 1,374.90. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at Tuesday’s low of 1,339.50 and
then at 1,329.20. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,589.75 and
then at 2,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
Monday’s low of 2,561.25 and then at Tuesday’s low of
2,548.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,648 and then at 12,630. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 12,715 and then at
Tuesday’s high of 12,762. Shorter-term moving averages are
neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 151 11/32 and then at Tuesday’s high of
151 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
150 24/32 and then at 150 16/32. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 134.24.0 and then at the contract high of
135.00.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
134.14.5 and then at 134.08.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The greenback bulls
still have upside near-term technical momentum. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
83.50 and then at this week’s high of 83.77. Shorter-term
support is seen at this week’s low of 83.03 and then at
82.75. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker in early trading. It still
appears this market has put in a major low. In August Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
Tuesday’s high of $89.46 and then at $90.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $88.00 and then at
$87.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were lower in overnight trading, on more profit
taking amid the major drought in the U.S. that is now said
to be the most severe since 1956. Importantly, the corn and
soybean markets could get no traction from late Monday
afternoon’s bigger-than-expected deterioration in the crops
in the latest USDA crop progress data. Any time a market
cannot rally on fresh, significantly bullish fundamental
news, that’s a clue all the bullish news has already been
factored into the present futures price structure. This is
another clue that the corn and soybean markets are not far
from major market tops. There is also now talk in the
market place that most of the damage done to the U.S. corn
crop has already occurred. That’s not the case for
soybeans. The U.S. drought is worsening by the day with no
significant relief in sight. But it’s still my bias that
the grain futures markets will top out in the near term—
possibly even this week—even though crop conditions will
likely continue to deteriorate for some time to come.
 

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