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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--July 2

Jul 02, 2012

Monday, July 2--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Many markets early today are seeing a pause or modest
corrective pullbacks and chart consolidation following a big
trading day on Friday. On Friday, European Union leaders at
their summit meeting agreed upon several significant
measures to confront the EU debt crisis. The EU summit was
considered a success given the scant progress that was
expected. Many markets closed at their weekly high closes on
Friday, amid that big “risk on” trading day. Monday morning
sees some fresh dour economic news, however. There was
another weak manufacturing report coming out of China, which
was the worst reading for that report since November. Also,
reports overnight showed manufacturing activity in the
European Union was weak, with EU unemployment reported at a
record high rate of 11%. Traders are now awaiting Friday
morning’s U.S. jobs report. European and Asian stocks were
firmer overnight. It’s likely to be a quieter trading week
this week, as the U.S. Independence Day holiday falls on
Wednesday, with many traders likely opting to take the
entire week off.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices hit a fresh six-week high overnight.
The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,362.30 and then at 1,375.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at the overnight low of 1,352.40 and then
at 1,341.10. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures:  The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at the June high of
2,628.25 and then at 2,650.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at 2,600.00 and then at 2,585.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,800 and then at 12,750. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 12,850 and then at
12,900. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 148 22/32 and then at 149 even. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at Friday’s low of 147 23/32 and then
at 147 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 133.20.0 and then at 134.00.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.09.5 and
then at 133.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are firmer in early trading, on a corrective bounce
from strong selling pressure on Friday. The greenback bulls
have faded. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are
bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at 82.00 and then at 82.25. Shorter-
term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.65 and then
at Friday’s low of 81.56. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower in early trading, on a
corrective, profit-taking pullback from big gains on Friday.
Now, the market may have put in a near-term low with
Friday’s big gains. Bears do still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. In August Nymex crude, look for
buy stops to reside just above resistance at $84.00 and then
at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support
at $83.00 and then at $82.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading, with corn leading
the way. The weather market in the grains remains fully
bullish, as there was not much rain over the weekend, with
not much in the forecast, either. The key “outside markets”
are bearish for the grains early today, as the U.S. dollar
index is firmer and crude oil prices are lower. Remember
this, grain traders: History shows that major weather
markets in the grains show prices putting in tops well
before most expect that to happen.
 

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