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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

JIm's Morning Markets Report--July 27

Jul 27, 2012

Friday, July 27--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

Note: I am out of the office this week, taking a vacation with my wife in Telluride,
Colorado. My friend and fellow analyst/trader Ken Seehusen is producing my morning
reports. Ken's style is a bit different than mine, but I think you'll also benefit from Ken's
work.--Jim

The STOCK INDEXES

The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extended the short
covering rally off Wednesday’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning
neutral hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 2592.56 would temper the near-term bearish
outlook. Multiple closes below the June-July uptrend line crossing near
2555.97 are needed to confirm that the rally off June’s low has ended while
opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the
20-day moving average crossing at 2592.56. Second resistance is last
Thursday’s high crossing at 2658.00. First support is the reaction low
crossing at 2516.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2503.50.

The September S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extended the short
covering rally off Wednesday’s low ahead of the release of this morning’s
GDP report. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling
that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends
this week’s rebound, this month’s high crossing at 1375.70 is the next
upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1320.00 would
confirm that a double top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction
high crossing at 1375.70. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at
1395.50. First support is the reaction low crossing near 1320.00. Second
support is the reaction low crossing at 1302.70.

INTEREST RATES

September T-bonds were lower due to profit taking overnight as it
consolidates some of this week’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are
diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top
might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
150-31 are needed to confirm that a double top with June’s high has been
posted. If September extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory,
upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is Wednesday’s
high crossing at 153-11. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing
at 150-31. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 147-23.

ENERGY MARKETS

September crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it
consolidates some of the decline off last week’s high. Stochastics and the
RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off June’s low, the
50% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at 94.41 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.94
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the
50% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at 94.41. Second
resistance is the 62% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at
98.42. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.94. Second
support is the reaction low crossing at 84.05.

CURRENCIES

The September Dollar was lower overnight as it extended Thursday’s breakout
below the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below
last Thursday’s low crossing at 82.80 would confirm that a short-term top
has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline into
early August. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 83.33 would
temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 83.33. Second resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at
84.24. First support is Thursday’s low crossing at 82.66. Second support is
the reaction low crossing at 81.56.

GRAINS

December corn was higher overnight as it continues to consolidate below
psychological resistance crossing at 8.00. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple
closes above 8.00, it could trigger renewed buying interest that would push
new-crop corn prices sharply higher into August. Initial support begins with
Tuesday’s low crossing at 7.45 1/2 then the 20-day moving average crossing
at 7.40 1/4. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.40 1/4
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
Monday’s high crossing at 8.00. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at
7.45 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.40 1/4.

December wheat was higher overnight but is trading below broken support
marked by the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.11 3/4. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session
begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling
that additional weakness is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 8.70 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has
been posted while opening the door for additional weakness into early
August. If December renews the rally off June’s low, the May-2011 high
crossing at 9.77 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday’s
high crossing at 9.53 1/4. Second resistance is the May-2011 high crossing
at 9.77 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.70
1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 8.16 1/4.

November soybeans were higher overnight as it continues to consolidate above
support marked by the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.58 1/4.
Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 15.58 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted
and could lead to a possible test of June’s uptrend line crossing near 15.10
before a bottom is found. If November renews this summer’s rally,
psychological resistance crossing at 17.00 is the next upside target. First
resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 16.91 1/2. Second resistance is
psychological resistance crossing at 17.00. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 15.58 1/4. Second support is the reaction low
crossing at 15.10.

 

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