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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--July 30

Jul 30, 2012

Monday, July 30--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Focus of the market place this week will be the two-day FOMC
meeting which starts Tuesday and ends early Wednesday
afternoon. Also, the European Central Bank’s policy meeting
and press conference are on Thursday. The Bank of England
also meets to discuss its monetary policy on Thursday.
Market watchers will be closely scrutinizing these meetings
for any fresh clues on the implementation of quantitative
easing of monetary policies. Such would be at least
initially bullish for many markets, including the precious
metals. In overnight news, it was reported Jean-Claude
Juncker, the head of the Euro zone finance ministers, said
the EU and ECB will soon take steps to eliminate the
potential for a spreading debt contagion in the European
Union. With the month of August just around the corner, much
of Europe is set to go on holiday, which means the market
place will have fewer players the next few weeks. Such could
make for quite, choppy and range-bound trading for many
markets.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Bulls have gained fresh upside near-term
technical momentum with Friday’s big gains that produced a
10-week high and bullish weekly high close. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Friday’s high
of 1,384.80 and then at 1,400.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at 1,375.00 and then at 1,360.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Bulls have fresh upsie momentum
following Friday’s bullish weekly high close. The shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at last week’s
high of 2,646.00 and then at the July high of 2,658.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at 2,625.00 and then at
2,600.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Bulls have gained upside near-term technical
momentum as prices Friday hit a fresh 10-week high and
closed at a bullish weekly high close. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at 13,000 and then at
12,950. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at Friday’s high of 13,051 and then at 13,100.
Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 150 18/32 and then at 151 even. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 149 28/32 and
then at last week’s low of 149 8/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 134.11.5 and then at 134.16.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at 134.00.0 and then at last week’s low of
133.26.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Bulls are fading a bit following Friday’s bearish weekly low
close. Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
Friday’s high of 83.06 and then at 83.25. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 82.73 and then at
last week’s low of 82.40. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady. Bulls have some upside
near-term technical momentum. Prices are in a five-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. In September Nymex crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the
overnight high of $90.95 and then at $92.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $89.00 and then at
$88.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were sharply higher in overnight trading, as the
major drought continues with no significant relief in
sight. Remember that this bull market run in the grains is
very mature. It’s still my bias that the grain futures
markets already have, or will top out in the near term.
Remember that a market gets the most very bullish at the
very top in price.
 

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