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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--June 25

Jun 25, 2012

Monday, June 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The market place is exhibiting a “risk-off” mentality to
start the new trading week. European and Asian stock
markets are weaker, while the U.S. stock indexes are also
weaker in early screen trading. There were no major-market
moving fundamental events that occurred over the weekend, so
focus is on the European Union’s summit that begins
Thursday. The EU debt crisis will be the focus of the
meeting, but market place expectations for any meaningful
results are low. In other EU-related news overnight, reports
said Spain has asked the EU for banking sector relief.
Italian and Spanish bond yields are rising again to start
the trading week.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,326.00 and then at Friday’s high of 1,331.50. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at 1,310.00 and then at
1,300.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Nasdaq index futures:  The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but has turned
down. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
the overnight high of 2,577.25 and then at 2,600.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at last week’s low of
2,548.50 and then at 2,525.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,450 and then at 12,400. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 12,500 and then at
12,538. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day, but has turned down. The 9-day moving average is
above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 149
even and then at Friday’s high of 149 12/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 148 16/32 and then at the
overnight low of 148 1/32. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 133.19.0 and then at 133.31.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.00.0 and
then at last week’s low of 132.27.0. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are higher in early trading. The bulls have regained
upside technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
82.79 and then at 83.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 82.46 and then at 82.00. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker in early trading. Prices Friday
hit an 8.5-month low of $77.56. Bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. In August Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
$80.00 and then at the overnight high of $80.68. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low
of $78.84 and then at $78.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were sharply higher in overnight trading as the
weather market in the grains continues. Extended weather
forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt call for drier and warmer
conditions, and that’s bullish for the grains. The grain
markets are also keeping an eye on the key “outside
markets,” which are bearish for the grains early today—a
stronger U.S. dollar index and weaker crude oil prices.
However, the weather forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt are
the trump card at present.
 

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