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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--June 29

Jun 29, 2012

Friday, June 29--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

It’s a “risk-on” day in the market place so far Friday as
the Euro currency rallies and U.S. dollar index sinks as
European Union leaders at their summit meeting have agreed
upon several significant measures to confront the EU debt
crisis, including establishing a single banking supervisor
and the European Central Bank being able to funnel rescue
funds directly to troubled banks. The EU rescue funds will
also be allowed to buy bonds from distressed EU countries.
The EU summit is considered a success given the scant
progress that was expected. The surprise coming out of the
summit was that Germany came into the meeting amid hawkish
comments from Chancellor Angela Merkel, but she apparently
significantly softened her stance at the meeting. Still,
caution remains as “the devil is in the details” of the new
measures actually being implemented and working. European
bond yields did back down on the EU summit news. One market
watcher put it well when he said the EU summit results
brings some relief to the market place but it’s certainly
not a game-changer. Asian and European stock markets rallied
on the EU summit news, while U.S. stock indexes are higher
in early screen trading. Traders are also awaiting fresh
Chinese economic data over the weekend. Friday is an extra
important trading day from a technical perspective as it’s
the last trading day of the month and of the quarter.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the June high of 1,356.80
and then at 1,370.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Downside support for active traders today is
located at 1,325.00 and then at the overnight low of
1,316.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures:  The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at this week’s high of 2,577.25 and then at
2,598.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at 2,550.00 and
then at 2,525.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,650 and then at 12,600. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 12,700 and then at
12,750. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early
today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The
9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 149 even and
then at 149 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 148 8/32 and then at 148 even. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance
lies at the overnight high of 134.01.0 and then at
134.05.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
133.09.0 and then at this week’s low of 133.00.0. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are sharply lower in early trading as the Euro
currency rallies on the EU summit news. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at 82.50 and then at
the overnight high of 82.90. Shorter-term support is seen at
the overnight low of 81.93 and then at 81.50. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are sharply higher in early trading, on
short covering and bargain hunting. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. In August Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
this week’s high of $80.92 and then at $82.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $79.00 and then at the
overnight low of $78.28. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading. The weather
market in the grains remains fully bullish. The key
“outside markets” are also bullish for the grains early
Friday, as the U.S. dollar index is sharply lower and crude
oil prices are sharply higher. Extended weather forecasts
for the U.S. Corn Belt still call for drier and very warm
conditions. Traders are awaiting this morning’s important
USDA acreage report and quarterly stocks figures. But the
weather forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt are the trump card
at present.
 

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