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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--May 10

May 10, 2012

Thursday, May 10--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The European Union sovereign debt crisis and still-shaky
growth pace of the major world economies remain big and
bearish drags on most commodity markets, with crude oil
being the downside leader. Most other commodity markets
won’t be able to mount serious, sustainable rallies unless
crude oil leads the way. And right now crude oil is still
in a very weak technical and fundamental posture. It is not
inconceivable that Nymex crude oil futures prices could dip
to $$75.00 a barrel by the U.S. Independence Day holiday.--
Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at 1,360.00 and then at this
week’s high of 1,370.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Downside support for active traders today is
located at the March low of 1,338.00 and then at 1,325.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,628.00 and
then at this week’s high of 2,648.25. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at 2,600.00 and then at this week’s low of
2,583.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,760 and then Wednesday’s low of 12,705. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
Wednesday’s high of 12,865 and then at 12,900. Shorter-term
moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies
at the 144 16/32 and then at overnight contract high of 144
26/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at 144 even and then at
this week’s low of 143 19/32. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 133.01.0 and then at the contract high of
133.08.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of
132.19.0 and then at 132.10.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are near steady in early trading, but bulls still
have some upside momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
80.34 and then at this week’s high of 80.41. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 80.14 and then at
Wednesday’s low of 79.97. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading slightly lower early today as
bears still have downside technical momentum on their side
after prices hit a 4.5-month low Wednesday. A bearish
pennant pattern may now be forming on the daily bar chart.
In June crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $97.00 and then at $97.50. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at $96.00 and then at this
week’s low of $95.17. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were firmer in overnight trading, on short covering
and position squaring ahead of this morning’s monthly USDA
supply and demand report. Traders are worried about bearish
corn figures in today’s report. Look for an active trading
day today, in the wake of the USDA data.
 

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