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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--May 17

May 17, 2012

Thursday, May 17--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Most markets are seeing gains early this morning, following
recent selling pressure. Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC minutes
hinted that further quantitative easing of U.S. monetary
policy is possible if the economy were to continue its
lethargic ways. Further quantitative easing of U.S. monetary
policy (QE3) would arguably be commodity-market bullish and
possibly stock market bullish, despite the specter of
reduced demand prospects due to the sluggish economy. Most
traders and investors reckon a QE3 situation would be
inflationary down the road. However, many reckoned the
monetary stimulus seen by the major central banks of the
world during the past 3.5 years would have already produced
inflationary price pressures.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,330.30 and then at Wednesday’s high of 1,339.50. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at 1,315.00 and then at
1,300.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices hit another fresh three-month
low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 2,571.00 and then at
Wednesday’s high of 2,596.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at 2,550.00 and then at 2,535.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,550 and then at 12,500. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 12,600 and then at
12,650. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices hit another fresh contract high
overnight. Safe-haven buying has been featured recently.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the contract
high of 147 5/32 and then at 147 16/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 146 12/32 and then at
146 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the contract
high of 133.19.5 and then at 134.00.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 133.05.0 and then at
133.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are higher in early trading and hit another four-
month high overnight. Bulls have solid upside momentum amid
safe-haven buying. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are
bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.83 and then
at 82.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 81.50 and then at
81.34. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading near steady after hitting a
six-month low of $91.81 Wednesday. Bears still have downside
technical momentum on their side. In June crude, look for
buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight
high of $93.72 and then at Wednesday’s high of $94.16. Look
for sell stops just below technical support at $92.50 and
then at $91.81. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading. The key outside
markets are neutral to bearish for grains early today—
higher U.S. dollar index and steady crude oil prices.
Bearish for grains is generally favorable planting and
growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt. Traders will closely
scrutinize this morning’s weekly USDA export sales data.
Recent export demand for U.S. grains has been strong.
 

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