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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Nov. 13

Nov 13, 2012

Tuesday, November 13--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, European stocks declined on apparent
disagreement among European Union troika officials on the
terms and when to disburse the next tranche of EU bailout
money to Greece, which is now running out of cash. An EU
meeting Monday failed to come to agreement on when to give
Greece a new cash infusion. Now, another EU meeting is
scheduled for November 20 on the matter. There was also more
weak economic data coming out of Germany Tuesday, where the
ZEW index of economic sentiment fell sharply. There is key
economic data coming out of the EU on Thursday, as gross
domestic product data is released by the major EU countries.
Focus in the U.S. remains on resolving the so-called fiscal
cliff matter by the end of the year. The Obama
administration and congressional leaders are both jawboning
the matter at present, with mixed ideas on whether the
rhetoric is good or bad. Ratings agencies have issued
warnings to the U.S. that U.S. credit will be downgraded if
the fiscal cliff problem is not sufficiently resolved. U.S.
economic data due for release Tuesday includes the NFIB
small business index, the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson
Redbook retail sales reports, the IBD/TIPP economic optimism
index, and the monthly Treasury budget statement.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker early today and hovering
near a 13-week low. Bears still have some downside momentum.
The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
the overnight high of 1,378.90 and then at 1,388.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at last week’s
low of 1,363.70 and then at 1,350.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 4.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower early today and
hovering close to a 13-week low. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,582.75 and
then at Monday’s high of 2,597.25. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at last week’s low of 2,556.25 and then at 2,550.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Dow futures: Prices are lower early and hovering close to a
13-week low. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at last week’s low of 12,705 and then at 12,650. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
Monday’s high of 12,810 and then at 12,850. Shorter-term
moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today and hit
a fresh 13-week high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 152 15/32 and then
at 153 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 151 19/32 and then at 151 even. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today and
hovering near a 3.5-month high. The bulls maintain the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at last week’s high of 134.06.5 and then at
134.10.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
133.26.0 and then at 133.22.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S.
trading today and hit another fresh two-month high
overnight. Bulls have good upside near-term momentum on
their side. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are
neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.31 and then
at 81.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low
of 81.03 and then at 80.68. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today. Bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage as a two-month-old
downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. In December
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $86.00 and then at $87.00. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at the overnight low of $84.58
and then at last week’s low of $84.05. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading, on short covering
following recent selling pressure. The grain market bears
have gained some fresh downside momentum, led by soybeans,
following a generally bearish USDA report issued last
Friday. Fresh near-term chart damage has been inflicted in
soybean and corn futures, but wheat futures markets are
holding their own. My bias is that there is not strong
selling pressure left in corn or soybeans at present price
levels.
 

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