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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Nov. 14

Nov 14, 2012

Wednesday, November 14--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, the market place is just a bit more at
ease Wednesday. The Euro currency made modest gains against
the U.S. dollar, suggesting at least the European Union
sovereign debt crisis did not worsen the past 24 hours.
However, there was more dour economic news coming out of the
EU, which suggested the bloc is headed for, or already in,
economic recession. Overall industrial production in the EU
countries fell 2.5% in September, it was reported Wednesday.
There is key economic data coming out of the EU on Thursday,
as gross domestic product data is released by the major EU
countries. If recent history repeats itself Greece will soon
be back on the front burner of the market place, regarding
fresh EU bailout money and the debating about when and if to
disburse fresh funds to the cash-starved country. There was
a German newspaper report Tuesday that suggested the EU
might soon shell out one big lump sum of cash to Greece, to
the tune of $56 billion. That did somewhat buoy European
markets. Many doubt that plan will actually occur, however.
Spanish and Italian bond yields did back off a bit
Wednesday, which is also a clue of anxiety levels in the
market place that are not rising. A European Central Bank
official once again stressed Wednesday that ECB monetary
policy cannot solve the economic structural problems facing
the EU. Such can also be said about monetary policy being
able to solve the U.S.’s economic structural problems. In
the U.S., traders and investors will closely monitor
Wednesday afternoon’s release of the minutes of the last
meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee
(FOMC). The ongoing “fiscal cliff” rhetoric between the
Democrats and Republicans will continue to be closely
monitored by the market place. U.S. economic data due for
release Wednesday includes the FOMC minutes, weekly MBA
mortgage applications survey, the Producer Price Index,
retail sales, and manufacturing and trade inventories.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today on short
covering. Bears still have some downside momentum. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes
in at the overnight high of 1,381.70 and then at 1,388.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at last week’s
low of 1,363.70 and then at 1,350.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today on short
covering. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day)
are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
the overnight high of 2,585.75 and then at this week’s high
of 2,597.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
Tuesday’s low of 2,553.00 and then at 2,540.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today on short
covering. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Tuesday’s low of 12,700 and then at 12,650. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
12,800 and then at Tuesday’s high of 12,855. Shorter-term
moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today and are
seeing some profit taking from recent gains. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 152
3/32 and then at Tuesday’s high of 152 15/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 151 10/32 and
then at 151 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today on
profit taking. The bulls still maintain the overall near-
term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 134.00.5 and then
at last week’s high of 134.06.5. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 133.22.0 and then at 133.13.0.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S.
trading today and hovering near a two-month high. Bulls
still have upside near-term momentum on their side. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
Tuesday’s high of 81.32 and then at 81.50. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 80.99 and then at
80.68. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage as a two-
month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. In
December Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at the overnight high of $86.00 and then at
$87.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$85.00 and then at this week’s low of $84.57. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading, on more short
covering following recent selling pressure. The grain
market bears have downside momentum. Fresh near-term chart
damage has been inflicted in soybean, corn and now wheat
futures. My bias is that there is not strong selling
pressure left in the grain markets at present price levels.
 

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