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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Nov. 21

Nov 21, 2012

Wednesday, November 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, the Tuesday meeting of Euro zone
officials in Brussels, on when to disburse the next tranche
of bailout money to Greece, failed to reach agreement. The
group will meet next week, reports said. It was widely
expected there would be an agreement reached Tuesday and
Greece would get the bailout money. No agreement just added
a bit more uncertainty to the market place. However, the EU
doesn’t have much choice if the bloc wants the financially
troubled EU country to stay afloat and stay in the union.
The Euro currency was pressured Wednesday on the lack of
agreement among EU leaders on the disbursement of funds to
Greece. Traders and investors continue to keep one eye on
the simmering situation between Israel and Hamas. There were
reports Tuesday of a ceasefire being imminent. However, the
armed conflict continues. Reports said a bus exploded in Tel
Aviv Wednesday. Any further escalation in that situation
could drive oil prices higher and see fresh flight-to-safety
buying of gold, U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar. U.S.
economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly
MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly jobless claims
report, the flash manufacturing PMI, the University of
Michigan consumer sentiment survey, leading economic
indicators, and the weekly DOE energy stocks report.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady early today, in
light pre-holiday trading. The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the
18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight
high of 1,389.20 and then at 1,400.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,377.10
and then at 1,363.70. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady early today in
quiet trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at 2,600.00 and then at 2,625.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 2,577.00 and then at
2,556.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Dow futures: Prices are near steady early today. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at 12,700 and
then at Tuesday’s low of 12,670. Buy stops likely reside
just above technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 12,775
and then at 12,800. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today and are
seeing more profit taking. Bulls are fading. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 150 25/32 and then
at 151 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 150 7/32 and then at 150 even. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today on
more profit taking. Bulls are fading a bit. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.23.0 and then
at 134.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 133.15.0 and then at 133.08.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early
U.S. trading today. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.30 and then
at last week’s high of 81.51. Shorter-term support is seen
at the overnight low of 80.95 and then at this week’s low of
80.83. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today on a corrective
bounce from solid losses scored on Tuesday. The Middle East
tensions will continue to limit selling pressure in crude.
In January Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $88.00 and then at $89.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $87.00 and then at
$86.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were firmer in overnight trading. Expect quieter
trading conditions the rest of the week due to the U.S.
Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. Grain market bulls are
working to recover from recent selling pressure, but have
more work to do in the near term, to suggest any price
uptrends can be sustained. It is my bias that there is not
strong downside price pressure left in corn and soybeans.
 

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