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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Nov. 28

Nov 28, 2012

Wednesday, November 28--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

It’s a “risk-off” trading day in the market place early
Wednesday. Traders and investors are more keenly focused on
the negotiations among U.S. lawmakers and President Obama
regarding the so-called “fiscal cliff” tax increases and
spending cuts that are approaching. Rhetoric coming from all
U.S. lawmakers this week is not soothing to the market
place—highlighted by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who
said late Tuesday there had been scant progress made in the
negotiating process to resolve the matter. European and
Asian stock markets, and the Euro currency were weaker
overnight on the fiscal cliff worries. However, a well-
subscribed Italian government debt auction Wednesday did
somewhat assuage European investor fears. There is still a
sense among many veteran politicos and market watchers that
some type of deal will be reached soon to avoid the U.S.
government going over the fiscal cliff. Meantime, in the
Middle East there are growing tensions in Egypt, as its
president awarded himself major powers last week, and the
public did not like it. Protesting in the streets is
occurring this week. This situation bears close watching and
if it escalates, it will more significantly impact markets.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the
weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new residential
sales, and the weekly DOE energy stocks report.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker early today. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
1,400.40 and then at Tuesday’s high of 1,407.40. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at 1,387.10 and then at
1,375.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker early today. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the
overnight high of 2,644.75 and then at Tuesday’s high of
2,658.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at this week’s
low of 2,623.00 and then at 2,600.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Prices are weaker early today. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at 12,800 and
then at 12,750. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 12,862 and then at 12,900. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today on flight-
to-safety buying. Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage and have regained upside momentum this week.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 150
6/32 and then at 150 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 149 19/32 and then at 149 even. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today. Bulls
are regaining upside momentum this week and have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.15.5 and then
at 133.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 133.08.5 and then at 133.00.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S.
trading today, on flight-to-safety buying of the greenback.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 80.76 and then at 81.00.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.56
and then at this week’s low of 80.27. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today. A bullish rounding-
bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart.
In January Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at the overnight high of $87.34 and then at
$88.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at 
$86.00 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were lower in overnight trading, amid the “risk
off” trader mentality in the market place, bearish outside
market forces--firmer U.S. dollar index and weaker crude
oil--and on corrective pullbacks from recent gains. Grain
market bulls have been working to regain upside near-term
technical momentum to suggest that near-term market lows
are in place.
 

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