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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Nov. 7

Nov 07, 2012

Wednesday, November 7--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The market place is taking President Obama’s re-election in
stride early Wednesday, as focus is quickly turning to other
matters. Asian and European stock markets were firmer
overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are trading slightly lower
in the early going Wednesday, on a corrective pullback from
solid gains scored Tuesday. Many market watchers do reckon
that an Obama victory is an underlying bullish factor for
raw commodity markets and U.S. Treasuries, given the easy
U.S. monetary policy that has been in place for quite some
time, and will likely continue under Obama’s second term.
Heading into the end of the year, one major focal point for
the market place will be the so-called U.S. fiscal cliff tax
and spending issues that the U.S. administration and
Congress must address. In other overnight news, German
industrial output fell more than expected, while Euro zone
retail sales also declined in September. European Union
officials also said Wednesday that the Greek economy will
contract 6% in 2012 and by 4.2% in 2013, which would be six
straight years of economic recession. The EU Commission also
put Greece’s unemployment rate at near 24% in 2012 and 2013.
European market watchers are also looking to a Greek
parliamentary vote on fresh austerity measures which is
scheduled for Wednesday. The European Central Bank holds its
monthly meeting on Thursday. There is a general leadership
conference in China starting Thursday, at which time new
leaders in China will be selected. U.S. economic data due
for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage
applications survey, consumer credit and the weekly DOE
energy stocks report.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker early today, on a mild
corrective pullback from Tuesday’s gains. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight
high of 1,431.40 and then at 1,440.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,411.20
and then at 1,400.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker early today. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 2,675 and
then at last week’s high of 2,694.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 2,653.75 and then at
this week’s low of 2,634.75. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0

Dow futures: Prices are lower early today. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of
13,085 and then at 13,000. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 13,150 and then at 13,200.
Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher early today
and hit a fresh three-week high. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 149 30/32 and then
at 150 9/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 149 16/32 and
then at 148 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher early
today and hit a fresh three-week high overnight. The bulls
maintain the overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 133.16.5 and then at 133.27.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at 133.00.0 and then at the overnight low of 132.20.5.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S.
trading today and hit a fresh two-month high. Bulls have
gained good upside momentum recently. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at 81.00 and then at
81.25. Shorter-term support is seen at 80.59 and then at the
overnight low of 80.36. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today on a corrective
pullback from Tuesday’s big gains and due to the stronger
U.S. dollar. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage as a seven-week-old downtrend is in
place on the daily bar chart. In December Nymex crude, look
for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $88.00 and
then at the overnight high of $88.80. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at $87.00 and then at $86.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed in overnight trading. The key outside
markets are bearish for the grains early today, as the U.S.
dollar index is higher and crude oil prices are lower.
Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s USDA monthly supply
and demand report on the grains. It is my bias that the
grain markets do not have strong downside price potential
and are likely to work sideways to higher in to the end of
the year.
 

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