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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Nov. 9

Nov 09, 2012

Friday, November 9--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

With stock markets worldwide under selling pressure late
this week, due to U.S. and European Union debt worries, U.S.
President Obama is set to tell the public at midday Friday
how he will address the so-called “fiscal cliff” debt
problem. The market place will closely scrutinize the
President’s remarks. With this week’s dour economic news
coming out of the European Union, which suggests the bloc is
on the brink of a serious recession, the German finance
ministry chimed in on Friday and said that in the coming
months Germany’s economy could “noticeably” weaken. This
week has seen industrial production data coming out of the
major EU countries, and all of that data showed significant
industrial output contraction in those countries. Meantime,
cash-starved Greece remains a major concern for EU
officials. There is yet another EU official meeting Monday
to address the situation in Greece and other financially
troubled EU countries. Amid all of the above, the Euro
currency slumped to another fresh two-month low against the
U.S. dollar on Friday. Tensions in the Middle East have
ratcheted up a notch this week as the U.S. said Iranian war
planes last week fired upon a U.S. drone in international
air space. Saudi Arabia also warned Iran Friday that it will
no longer tolerate Iranian war planes intruding into Saudi
air space. U.S. economic data due for release Friday
includes import and export price indexes, the University of
Michigan consumer sentiment survey, and monthly wholesale
trade inventories.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are lower early today and hit a
fresh 13-week low overnight. Bears have downside momentum.
The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
the overnight high of 1,381.70 and then at 1,400.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at 1,360.00 and
then at 1,350.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today
and hit a fresh 13-week low overnight. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day
average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at the overnight high of
2,584.25 and then at 2,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at 2,550.00 and then at 2,525.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

Dow futures: Prices are weaker early today and hit a fresh
13-week low overnight. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at 12,700 and then at 12,650. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at 12,775 and
then at 12,800. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today on more
safe-haven buying and hit a 13-week high overnight. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage and have
upside near-term momentum on their side. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 152 3/32 and then
at 152 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 151 16/32 and
then at the overnight low of 151 4/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near higher early today
and hit a fresh 3.5-month high overnight on safe-haven
demand. The bulls maintain the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
134.08.0 and then at the July high of 134.18.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.24.0 and
then at 133.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S.
trading today and is hovering near a two-month high. Bulls
have good upside momentum on their side. Slow stochastics
for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s
high of 81.11 and then at 81.25. Shorter-term support is
seen at the overnight low of 80.68 and then at 80.50.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today. Bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage as a two-month-old
downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. In December
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $85.00 and then at $86.00. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at this week’s low of $84.05
and then at $83.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed but mostly lower in overnight trading.
The key “outside markets” are bearish for the grains today
as the U.S. dollar index is higher and crude oil prices are
weaker. Traders are awaiting this morning’s USDA monthly
supply and demand report on the grains. It is my bias that
the grain markets do not have strong downside price
potential and are likely to work sideways to higher in to
the end of the year. However, if crude oil prices continue
to trend lower, any gains in the grains will be limited.
 

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