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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--November 16

Nov 16, 2011

Wednesday, November 16--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The European Union debt worries are now spreading to France as
the crisis appears to be escalating--again. This has the
commodity markets and U.S. stock indexes under moderate selling
pressure again today. The U.S. stock market appears to be
reacting less to the EU debt crisis recently and more to U.S.
economic fundamentals that have shown slight improvement. Could
this be the calm before the storm, regarding another major,
negative EU development on the horizon? Or, has the market place
really started to decouple from the EU debt crisis? It’s likely
the price action in the market place the next couple weeks will
go a long way in determining which scenario is likely fact.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance
comes in at the overnight high of 1,258.60 and then at last
week’s high of 1,275.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at
this week’s low of 1,234.80 and then at last week’s low of
1,218.80. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-
day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at this
week’s high of 2,374.25 and then at 2,400.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 2,337.50 and then at this
week’s low of 2,310.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 11,900 and then more stops just below support 11,850.
Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 12,000
and then at 12,050. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The
9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 141 16/32 and
then at 141 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight
high of 142 15/32 and then at this week’s high of 142 21/32. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 131.00.0 and
then at the October high of 131.12.5. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 130.08.5 and then at 130.00.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today
and hit a fresh five-week high overnight. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 78.60
and then at 79.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 78.04 and then at Tuesday’s low of 77.62. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading slightly lower today on mild profit
taking from recent gains that saw prices hit a 13-week high of
$99.84 on Tuesday. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical
advantage. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $100.00 and then at $101.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $98.00 and then at $97.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were weaker in overnight trading. The key “outside
markets” are again mostly bearish for grains early today—-firmer
U.S. dollar index and weaker crude oil and stock index prices.
Trading has turned choppy in the grain markets recently, with
soybeans the weak sister. My bias is still that there is not
strong downside price pressure left in the grains.
 

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