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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--November 21

Nov 21, 2011

       Monday, November 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

It’s a “risk off” day in the market place to start the new
trading week. Now, the U.S. debt problems have combined with the
European Union’s sovereign debt crisis to spook traders and
investors. The markets feeling the benefit are U.S. Treasuries
and the U.S. dollar index, on flight-to-quality buying interest.
It’s my bias that the commodity markets that have been beaten
down recently by the risk aversion in the market place will at
some point soon become value-buying opportunities.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices hit a fresh four-week low overnight. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the
overnight high of 1,209.00 and then at Friday’s high of 1,229.70.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support
for active traders today is located at 1,185.00 and then at
1,175.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices hit a fresh six-week low overnight.
The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight
high of 2,244.00 and then at 2,275.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at the overnight low of 2,218.00 and then at 2,200.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 11,550 and then more stops just below support 11,500.
Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 11,767
and then at 11,800. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The
9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices hit a fresh six-week high
overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term support
lies at 143 even and then at the overnight low of 142 26/32. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term
technical resistance lies at 144 even and then at 144 16/32. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the November high of 131.00.0 and
then at the October high of 131.12.5. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 130.11.0 and then at 130.00.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today
and hit a fresh six-week high overnight. Dollar index bulls have
upside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 78.71
and then at 79.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 78.14 and then at 78.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading lower today on a corrective pullback
from recent strong gains. Trading has turned volatile and choppy
at higher levels, which is not bullish. Bulls do still have the
near-term technical advantage, but are fading and need to show
fresh power soon. In January crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at $97.00 and then at $98.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $95.61
and then at $95.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading. The key “outside markets”
are bearish for grains early today—-higher U.S. dollar index and
lower crude oil and stock index prices. Fresh technical damage
has been inflicted in the grain markets recently as traders have
been spooked by the EU debt crisis. Traders are presently paying
more attention to the outside markets than to the overall supply
and demand fundamentals of the grain markets.
 

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