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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--November 23

Nov 23, 2011

Wednesday, November 23--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

A terribly subscribed German government bond auction today has
the world market place in a “risk-off” mode in early trading. The
German bond’s disastrous results have renewed concerns about the
survivability of the Euro currency. With the U.S. Thanksgiving
holiday on Thursday a light trading day on Friday, in which many
investors will take a four-day weekend, look for many traders to
take their money off the table today. That means many markets
will see long liquidation selling pressure—except for the safe-
haven U.S. Treasuries and U.S. dollar index.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices hit a fresh six-week low overnight. Bulls
have faded badly recently. The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance
comes in at the overnight high of 1,185.00 and then at 1,200.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support
for active traders today is located at the overnight low of
1,167.00 and then at 1,150.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Nasdaq index futures: Bulls are fading. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average
is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,216.75
and then at this week’s high of 2,244.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at this week’s low of 2,187.00 and then at 2,175.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 11,300 and then more stops just below support at
11,250. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance
at 11,400 and then at 11,450. Shorter-term moving averages are
bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-
day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices hit a fresh seven-week high overnight.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term support lies
at 144 even and then at 143 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the
overnight high of 145 3/32 and then at the October high of 145
31/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices hit a fresh seven-week high overnight.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance
lies at the overnight high of 130.20.0 and then at the October
high of 130.22.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 130.00.0 and then
at 129.15.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today and
hit a fresh seven-week high overnight. Dollar index bulls have
upside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 79.38
and then at 79.50. Shorter-term support is seen at 79.00 and then
at 78.61. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading solidly lower today. Trading has
turned volatile and choppy at higher levels, which is not
bullish. Bulls do still have the near-term technical advantage,
but have faded. In January crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at $97.00 and then at $98.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $95.76
and then at $95.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were solidly lower in overnight trading Same old story:
grains are following the outside markets. The key outside markets
are bearish for grains early today—-higher U.S. dollar index and
lower crude oil and stock index prices. Fresh technical damage
has been inflicted in the grain markets recently as traders have
been spooked by the EU debt crisis. Grain prices will not recover
until the EU debt crisis starts to de-escalate.
 

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