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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--November 25

Nov 25, 2011

Friday, November 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Sharply higher Italian bond yields, above 7%, have the market
place spooked again Friday morning as the EU debt crisis
continues and even gets ratcheted up a notch. Commodity and stock
markets are under pressure, while the U.S. dollar index pushes
still higher. If the market place ends Friday with keen
uncertainty and most markets down on the day, then that sets up a
pivotal trading day come next Monday. Many are now sensing the EU
debt crisis is reaching a climactic level that includes
increasing talk of a break-up in the Euro currency.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices hit a fresh seven-week low overnight.
Bulls have faded badly recently. The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-
day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-
term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,160.20 and then at 1,173.70. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Downside support for active traders today is
located at the overnight low of 1,147.50 and then at 1,125.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices hit a fresh seven-week low
overnight. Bulls are fading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-
day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the
overnight high of 2,162.25 and then at 2,184.50. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 2,135.75 and then at
2,125.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 11,100 and then more stops just below support at
11,000. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance
at 11,220 and then at 11,250. Shorter-term moving averages are
bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-
day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
support lies at the overnight low of 143 31/32 and then at 143
16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-
term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 144 22/32
and then at 145 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 130.08.5 and then at
130.15.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
130.00.0 and then at 129.24.5. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today and
hit another fresh seven-week high overnight. Dollar index bulls
have solid upside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics
for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
80.16 and then at the October high of 80.58. Shorter-term support
is seen at the overnight low of 79.87 and then at 79.50.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 7.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading lower early today. Bulls do still
have the overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded.
In January crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $96.00 and then at the overnight high of $97.09.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s
low of $95.24 and then at $95.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading Same old story: grains are
following the outside markets. The key outside markets are
bearish for grains early today—-higher U.S. dollar index and
lower crude oil and stock index prices. Fresh technical damage
has been inflicted in the grain markets recently as traders have
been spooked by the EU debt crisis. Grain prices will not recover
until the EU debt crisis starts to de-escalate.
 

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