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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Oct. 23

Oct 23, 2012

Tuesday, October 23--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

It’s a “risk-off” day in the market place early Tuesday.
Some disappointing U.S. corporate earnings reports, DuPont
being the latest, have hit the U.S. stock market. European
stocks were pressured on fresh worries about Spain’s
economic health. Spanish bond yields rose Tuesday on reports
Spain’s central bank said the Spanish economy contracted by
1.7% in the third quarter, on an annual basis, versus the
1.3% contraction in the second quarter. The central bank
also said Spain may not be able to meet its deficit targets.
Also, Moody’s has further downgraded sectors of the Spanish
economy. Arguably the most important economic event of the
week is the meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open
Market Committee, which begins Tuesday morning and ends
early Wednesday afternoon. The FOMC is expected to make no
major monetary policy shifts, but the market place will be
very closely scrutinizing wording from the FOMC statement
issued following the meeting. U.S. economic data due for
release Tuesday includes the Goldman Sachs and Johnson
Redbook weekly retail sales reports, the Richmond Fed
business survey, and the FOMC meeting begins.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker early today, hit a fresh
six-week low and are scoring a bearish “outside day” down on
the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at 1,425.00 and then at the
overnight high of 1,433.10. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at the overnight low of 1,411.50 and then
at 1,400.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hovering near a
2.5-month low early today. The shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at 2,675.00 and then at the overnight high of
2,695.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at 2,650.00 and
then at 2,625.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Dow futures: Prices hit a fresh six-week low overnight as
bulls are fading. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at 13,150 and then at 13,100. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at 13,200 and
then at 13,250. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today, on
some fresh safe-haven demand. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the
18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 147 22/32 and then at 148 even. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 147 even and then at the overnight
low of 146 22/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of
132.13.5 and then at 132.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
last week’s low of 131.29.0 and then at 131.23.0. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S.
trading today. While bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage, the bulls are gaining a bit of upside
momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at last week’s high of 80.04 and then at the
October high of 80.31. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 79.62 and then at 79.50. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today and hit a fresh 13-
week low overnight. Bears have now regained overall near-
term technical advantage. In December Nymex crude, look for
buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight
high of $89.29 and then at $90.00. Look for sell stops just
below technical support at the overnight low of $87.27 and
then at $87.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were lower in overnight trading, on some profit
taking and chart consolidation from recent gains. The key
outside markets are in a bearish posture for the grains
early today, as the U.S. dollar index is firmer and crude
oil prices are lower. Grain markets have made some upside
headway recently, to provide the bulls with some fresh
technical momentum.
 

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