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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Oct. 26

Oct 26, 2012

Friday, October 26--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

(Note: I was out of the office Wednesday and Thursday,
speaking at a precious metals investment symposium in New
Orleans. I know I have a great job when I can’t wait to get
back home to once again serve you, my valued reader.—Jim)

It’s a “risk-off” day in the market place early Friday. The
European and Asian stock markets were lower following more
disappointing U.S. earnings reports (Apple, Amazon) and in
the wake of a move by the Standard & Poors credit rating
agency to downgrade the French bank BNP Paribas, as well as
lower its outlook for two other French banks-- Societe
Generale and Credit Agricole. The agency said it economic
conditions are deteriorating in France and southern Europe.
Meantime, Greece remains in a precarious financial
condition, needing more bailout funds than expected in the
near term, as the European Union leaders try to figure out
the next step to take on that matter. And reports overnight
said a European Central Bank official said Italy’s banking
sector is under severe strains. All of the above have
pressured the Euro currency and supported buying interest in
the U.S. dollar. The market place is girding for Friday
morning’s release of the U.S. advance third-quarter gross
domestic product report. That report is expected to show the
U.S. economy grew at a rate of 1.8%, on an annual basis, in
the third quarter. Any number that deviates from the
expected figure is likely to move the markets. Other
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the
University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker early today and hit a
fresh 10-week low overnight. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight
high of 1,409.40 and then at Thursday’s high of 1,416.70.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at the overnight
low of 1,394.70 and then at 1,380.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 4.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit a 2.5-month
low early today. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
the overnight high of 2,654.25 and then at Thursday’s high
of 2,673.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
2,625.00 and then at the overnight low of 2,604.50. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Dow futures: Prices hit a fresh 10-week low overnight as
bulls are fading. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at 12,900 and then at 12,850. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at 13,000 and
then at 13,050. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today, on
short covering nd some fresh safe-haven demand. Trading has
turned choppy. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 148 even and then at this week’s high of 148 4/32.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at 147 even and then at the
overnight low of 146 19/32. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today on
short covering and safe-haven buying. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at this week’s high of 132.16.0 and then at
132.26.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at 132.00.0 and then at
this week’s low of 131.22.0. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S.
trading today and hit a fresh six-week high overnight. While
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage,
the bulls are gaining upside momentum this week. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
80.59 and then at 80.75. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 80.08 and then at Thursday’s low of 79.77.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today and are hovering
near a 13-week low hit this week. Bears have the overall
near-term technical advantage as a downtrend on the daily
bar chart has been re-established. In December Nymex crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the
overnight high of $86.29 and then at $87.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at this week’s low of
$84.94 and then at $84.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were weaker in overnight trading, on some profit
taking and chart consolidation from recent gains. The key
outside markets are also in a bearish posture for the
grains early today, as the U.S. dollar index is firmer and
crude oil prices are lower.
 

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