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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--October 1

Oct 01, 2012

Monday, October 1--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, Chinese economic data released Monday was
again downbeat, showing a weak manufacturing sector via its
PMI index. China is on holiday this week, celebrating Golden
Week. A major Japanese economic report was also released
Monday and it also showed Japanese companies are pessimistic
regarding their business prospects. In Europe, there was
some better-than-expected euro zone manufacturing data
issued Monday, which helped to lift European stock markets.
Spanish and Italian bond yields did edge down Monday.
Moody’s is set to release later Monday its latest credit
rating on Spain. Later this week there will be some more
important U.S. economic data released, including the FOMC
minutes on Thursday and the employment report on Friday.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S.
manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business, construction
spending and the global manufacturing PMI.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at 1,444.00 and then at last
week’s high of 1,456.60. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Downside support for active traders today is
located at last week’s low of 1,424.50 and then at 1,415.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at 2,821.25 and then at 2,835.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at 2,800.00 and then at
the overnight low of 2,778.50. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 13,395 and then at 13,355. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 13,455 and then at
13,500. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early
today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer today as bulls
still have some upside near-term technical momentum.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 149
28/32 and then at last week’s high of 150 9/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 149 11/32 and
then at 149 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher early
today. Bulls still have some upside momentum. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.21.5 and then
at last week’s high of 133.27.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 133.13.0 and then at 133.08.0.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S.
trading today. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 80.25 and then at 80.50.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.80
and then at 79.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today. Bulls and
bears are presently on a level near-term technical playing
field. In November Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at the overnight high of $92.18 and
then at $92.50. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at the overnight low of $91.26 and then at $91.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. Corn is
trading near steady after its limit-up move on Friday,
following a bullish USDA quarterly grain stocks report on
Friday. Corn Bulls have some fresh upside technical
momentum but need to show that important follow-through
strength early this week, to then suggest price can trend
higher. Soybean bulls are still struggling, while wheat
bulls still have the overall technical edge amid choppy and
sideways trading.
 

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