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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--October 12

Oct 12, 2012

Friday, October 12--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, China’s central bank allowed the Chinese
currency, the yuan, to trade sharply higher against the U.S.
dollar. The move by China was an effort to get more foreign
capital flowing into China. The market place will closely
scrutinize a fresh batch of Chinese economic data due for
release over the weekend. It was also reported Friday that
industrial production in the European Union grew 0.6% in
August, which beat expectations of a 0.4% decline in August,
from July. The mood of the European investor is a bit more
upbeat Friday. U.S. economic data due for release Friday
includes the producer price index, the University of
Michigan consumer sentiment survey, and the monthly Treasury
budget statement.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
Thursday’s high of 1,429.00 and then at 1,454.40. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at Thursday’s low of
1,421.50 and then at 1,410.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices hit another fresh seven-week
low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
2,730.00 and then at Thursday’s high of 2,745.50. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,709.50
and then at 2,700.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Thursday’s low of 13,255 and then at 13,200. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
13,350 and then at Thursday’s high of 13,370. Shorter-term
moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly weaker early
today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high
of 149 13/32 and then at 150 even. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies
at the overnight low of 148 26/32 and then at 148 16/32.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly weaker early
today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s
high of 133.12.5 and then at 133.16.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at 133.00.0 last week’s low of 132.27.5. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is weaker again in early U.S.
trading today. The greenback bears have the overall near-
term technical advantage and are regaining some downside
momentum late this week. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
79.90 and then at this week’s high of 80.31. Shorter-term
support is seen at 79.57 and then at this week’s low of
79.43. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly firmer early today. Bulls have
the slight near-term technical advantage. In November Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
$93.00 and then at this week’s high of $93.66. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at the overnight low of
$91.65 and then at $91.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were lower in overnight trading, on a corrective,
profit-taking pullback from Thursday’s solid gains. The
USDA report Thursday morning was bullish for corn and
soybeans, and wheat followed them higher. Thursday’s USDA
report may have been a near-term “game-changer” for the
grains. It’s now likely harvest lows are in place in the
grains and that prices can work sideways to higher in to
the end of the year. Grain traders are awaiting this
morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
 

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