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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--October 17

Oct 17, 2011

Monday, October 17--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The U.S. stock indexes have moved up to the top of, or above, the recent sideways trading ranges on the daily bar charts. Stock index bulls have gained upside momentum recently, as it looks like market lows are in place and prices can now "climb a wall of worry" into the end of the year.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES S&P 500 futures: Prices hit a fresh 10-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18- day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,230.70 and then at 1,250.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,200.00 and then at 1,185.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices hit a fresh 10-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18- day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,388.50 and then at 2,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 2,350.00 and then at Friday’s low of 2,320.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 11,500 and then more stops just below support at 11,450. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of 11,582 and then at 11,600. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish. Wyckoff's Intra- Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18- day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term support lies at 138 even and then at the overnight low of 137 13/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 139 even and then at Friday’s high of 139 22/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18- day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 128.24.0 and then at 129.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 128.00.0 and then at the overnight low of 127.21.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX The December U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today but did hit a fresh four-week low overnight. Bulls have faded badly recently and bears still have some downside technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 77.56 and then at 77.74. Shorter-term support is seen at 77.00 and then at the overnight low of 76.70. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL Crude oil prices are trading near steady early today but did hit a fresh four-week high overnight. The bulls still have some upside technical momentum to suggest prices can continue to trend sideways to higher in the near term. In November crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $88.18 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $86.0 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff's Intra- Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS Prices were mostly weaker in overnight trading. With U.S. corn and soybean harvest nearing or more than past the half-way point, it is my bias that "harvest lows" are in place for corn and soybeans, but wheat still looks more bearish. Grains will continue to be heavily influenced by the key "outside markets" that include the U.S. dollar index, crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes.

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