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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--October 18

Oct 18, 2011
Tuesday, October 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log * JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY * It looks like a “risk off” day in the market place so far Tuesday, as U.S. stock indexes and most commodity markets are lower, while the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasuries are higher. Trading has been choppy and sideways in many markets for the past couple weeks, or longer.--Jim U.S. STOCK INDEXES S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18- day) are stilll bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,200.00 and then at 1,214.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,180.00 and then at 1,160.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5 Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18- day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,332.75 and then at 2,350.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,311.75 and then at 2,300.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5 Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 11,200 and then more stops just below support at 11,150. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 11,300 and then at 11,350. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18- day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5 U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18- day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term support lies at 140 even and then at the overnight low of 139 9/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 140 18/32 and then at 141 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0 December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18- day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 129.05.0 and then at 129.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 128.16.5 and then at 128.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5 U.S. DOLLAR INDEX The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Bulls are making a modest recovery this week. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 77.78 and then at 78.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 77.24 and then at 77.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5 CRUDE OIL Crude oil prices are trading near steady early today. The bulls still have some upside technical momentum to suggest prices can continue to trend sideways to higher in the near term. In November crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $87.00 and then at Monday’s high of $88.18. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $86.0 and then at the overnight low of $85.55. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0 GRAINS Prices were lower in overnight trading. Grains will continue to be heavily influenced by the key “outside markets,” and they are in a mostly bearish posture early this morning--the U.S. dollar index is firmer, crude oil is steady-weak, and the U.S. stock indexes are mostly weaker. There is still some harvest pressure occurring in the corn and soybean futures markets.
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