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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--September 10

Sep 10, 2012

Monday, September 10--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Now that the U.S. employment report for August is out of the
way, focus is on this week’s meeting of the Federal Open
Market Committee of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which starts
on Wednesday and ends on Thursday with Fed Chairman Bernanke
holding a press conference. Last Friday’s weak U.S. jobs
report likely opens the door wider for a fresh U.S. monetary
stimulus announcement by the FOMC. Such would be at least
initially bullish for the stock and commodity markets. In
overnight news, European stock markets were stable and quiet
ahead of the FOMC meeting and a German constitutional court
ruling Wednesday on the validity of the European Stability
Mechanism. Dutch elections are also slated for Wednesday.
Spanish and Italian bond yields inched up overnight, but
were still near multi-month lows and well below 6%. There
was more downbeat economic news coming out of China
overnight. China’s trade surplus widened as imports
declined. Industrial production in China also slowed in
August. Asian stocks were narrowly mixed overnight.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at last week’s four-year high
of 1,438.50 and then at 1,450.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at Friday’s low of 1,430.40 and then at the
August high of 1,424.60. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at last week’s high of 2,836.25 and then at
2,850.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at 2,802.50 and
then at 2,780.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 13,250 and then at 13,200. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of
13,310 and then at 13,350. Shorter-term moving averages are
neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 149 16/32 and
then at the overnight high of 149 23/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 148 24/32 and then at
last week’s low of 148 10/32. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 133.07.5 and then at Friday’s high of 133.17.0. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.28.0 and
then at 132.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S.
trading and poked to a fresh four-month low overnight. Bears
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as a
seven-week-old downtrend line is in place on the daily bar
chart. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at 80.75 and then at 81.00. Shorter-term support
is seen at the overnight low of 80.30 and then at 80.00.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. In October
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $97.00 and then at $97.50. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at $96.00 and then at $95.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were firmer in overnight trading. Traders are now
awaiting Wednesday morning’s monthly USDA report in order
to get a fresh reading on the supply and demand situation
in the grains. Trading may be quieter ahead of that report.
Grain market bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage.
 

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