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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--September 11

Sep 11, 2012

Tuesday, September 11--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Focus of the market place is not only on this week’s meeting
of the Federal Open Market Committee of the U.S. Federal
Reserve, but also on a German constitutional court ruling
Wednesday on the validity of the European Stability
Mechanism. There was a last-minute effort on Tuesday by some
politicians to delay the court ruling, but those efforts
quickly failed and the ruling will occur Wednesday. Dutch
elections are also slated for Wednesday. The FOMC meeting
starts on Wednesday and ends on Thursday with Fed Chairman
Bernanke holding a press conference. Last week’s downbeat
U.S. jobs report likely opened the door wider for a fresh
U.S. monetary stimulus announcement by the FOMC. Such would
be at least initially bullish for the stock and commodity
markets. In overnight news, Asian and European stock markets
were weaker but quiet ahead of the FOMC meeting and German
court ruling. Spanish and Italian bond yields have inched up
this week, but are still near multi-month lows and well
below 6%.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at last week’s four-year high
of 1,438.50 and then at 1,450.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at the overnight low of 1,421.60 and then
at 1,403.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at 2,800.00 and then at Monday’s high of 2,823.75.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of
2,777.75 and then at 2,766.50. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Monday’s low of 13,240 and then at 13,200. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
Monday’s high of 13,316 and then at 13,350. Shorter-term
moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 149 19/32 and then at 150 even. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at Monday’s low of 148 24/32 and then
at last week’s low of 148 10/32. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 133.06.0 and then at 133.17.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at 132.24.0 and then at 132.16.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S.
trading. Bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage as a seven-week-old downtrend line is in
place on the daily bar chart. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 80.59
and then at 80.75. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s
low of 80.30 and then at 80.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. In October
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $97.00 and then at $97.50. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at $96.00 and then at $95.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mostly firmer in overnight trading. Corn bulls
have faded a bit. Traders are awaiting Wednesday morning’s
monthly USDA report in order to get a fresh reading on the
supply and demand situation in the grains. Grain market
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
However, these are very mature bull market runs.
 

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