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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--September 13

Sep 13, 2012

Thursday, September 13--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Focus of the market place is squarely on Thursdays’
conclusion of the two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market
Committee of the U.S. Federal Reserve. The FOMC meeting ends
on Thursday afternoon with Fed Chairman Bernanke holding a
press conference. The market place has a slight bias that
the Fed will announce QE3, or some sort of fresh stimulus
package, on Thursday. But even if the Fed does not make a
stimulus move on Thursday, the majority of the market place
believes the U.S. central bank will act to ease monetary
policy in the coming weeks. No significant action at all by
the Fed Thursday would disappoint many commodity and stock
market bulls and could put downside price pressure on many
markets. In other overnight news, the Italian government had
a successful long-term bond offering, with most agreeing the
debt sale went well due to the European Union’s recent
proclamations to support governments’ debt sales by having
the European Central Bank sop up any excess debt. Also,
Greece’s unemployment rate rose to a record high of 23.6% in
in the second quarter.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s
high of 1,440.20 and then at 1,450.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,426.30
and then at this week’s low of 1,421.60. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day
Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 2,800.00 and then at this
week’s high of 2,823.75. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
this week’s low of 2,768.75 and then at 2,750.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 13,300 and then at 13,265. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high
of 13,284 and then at 13,300. Shorter-term moving averages
are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is
above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Short covering is featured early
today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 148 even and
then at 148 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Wednesday’s
low of 147 10/32 and then at 147 even. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
Wednesday’s high of 132.27.5 and then at 133.00.0. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.12.0 and
then at last week’s low of 132.08.0. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S.
trading. Bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage as a seven-week-old downtrend line is in
place on the daily bar chart. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at 80.00 and then at
Wednesday’s high of 80.15. Shorter-term support is seen at
the overnight low of 79.72 and then at this week’s low of
79.64. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage as prices hover just
below the summertime highs. In October Nymex crude, look for
buy stops to reside just above resistance at the August high
of $98.29 and then at $99.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at the overnight low of $96.75 and then at
$96.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed in overnight trading. Corn bulls have
faded but bean bulls gained fresh power Wednesday to
suggest new highs are in the offing. Wheat trading remains
choppy at higher levels. Traders are awaiting this
morning’s weekly USDA export sales report in order to get a
better reading on the demand situation in the grains. Grain
market bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage.
 

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