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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--September 17

Sep 17, 2012

Monday, September 17--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Many markets, including the precious metals, are in a pause
mode to start the new trading week, but still feeling the
bullish glow in the aftermath of last week’s U.S. Federal
Reserve announcement another round of quantitative easing of
monetary policy—nicknamed QE3. That followed the European
Union announcing its own fresh, monetary stimulus package
the week before. The next major news event the markets are
awaiting this week is Thursday’s manufacturing data coming
out of China. There is still underlying concern in the
market place regarding the European Union’s sovereign debt
crisis. There were no major developments over the weekend as
meetings are ongoing among EU officials to work to stabilize
the crisis. Don’t be surprised if the EU debt crisis gets
moved back to the front burner of the market place in the
near term. U.S. economic data due for release Monday is
light and includes the Empire State manufacturing survey.--
Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are seeing mild  profit taking after
hitting another 4.5-year high on Friday. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
Friday’s high of 1,467.50 and then at 1,475.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at 1,450.00 and then at
1,440.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are seeing mild profit taking
after hitting an 11-year high Friday. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day
average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at Friday’s high of 2,859.25
and then at 2,875.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
the overnight low of 2,840.50 and then at Friday’s low of
2,820.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Dow futures: Prices are seeing mild profit taking after
hitting a four-year high Friday. Sell stops likely reside
just below technical support at Friday’s low of 13,485 and
then at 13,450. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 13,550 and then at Friday’s high of 13,570.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices hit a fresh four-month low
overnight and the bulls are fading badly. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 145 7/32 and then
at 145 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 144 15/32 and then at 144 even. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Bears have downside near-term
technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 132.03.0 and then at 132.08.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at last week’s low of 131.23.0 and
then at 131.15.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S.
trading as the market pauses after hitting a four-month low
on Friday. Bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage as a two-month-old downtrend line is in
place on the daily bar chart. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
79.11 and then at Friday’s high of 79.41. Shorter-term
support is seen at Friday’s low of 78.72 and then at 78.50.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today. Prices hit
a fresh 4.5-month high on Friday and briefly pushed above
major psychological resistance at $100.00 a barrel. Bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
In October Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at the overnight high of $99.28 and then at
$100.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $98.56 and then at $98.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were solidly lower in overnight trading. Profit
taking from recent gains is seen. The key “outside markets”
are mildly bearish for the grains early today, as the U.S.
dollar index is slightly higher and crude oil prices are
slightly lower. Focus is more on the demand prospects for
U.S. grain, now that traders are getting a somewhat better
handle on the U.S. supply.
 

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