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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--September 19

Sep 19, 2012

Wednesday, September 19--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, the Bank of Japan joined the crowd of
central banks further easing monetary policy, as the BOJ
announced an aggressive monetary stimulus program amid what
it says is a global economic slowdown. The BOJ move provided
a boost to many raw commodity markets overnight, including
the precious metals. Asian stock markets also rose on the
BOJ news. Meantime, a Chinese finance ministry researcher
said the risks for inflation in China exceed the need for
more economic stimulus. There is a slew of fresh economic
data coming out of China on Thursday. The market place
worries the China economic data may show significant
weakness. U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday
includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new
residential construction, existing home sales and the weekly
DOE energy stocks report.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,459.00 and then at last week’s high of 1,467.50. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at this week’s low of
1,449.10 and then at 1,440.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices hit a fresh 11-year high
overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
the overnight high of 2,862.75 and then at 2,875.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at 2,850.00 and then at
this week’s low of 2,838.25. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Tuesday’s low of 13,450 and then at 13,400. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
13,550 and then at last week’s high of 13,570. Shorter-term
moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are seeing more short covering
after hitting a four-month low on Monday. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 146
16/32 and then at 147 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
146 even and then at the overnight low of 145 19/32. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: More short covering is featured
today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this
week’s high of 132.16.5 and then at 132.24.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.02.0 and
then at last week’s low of 131.23.0. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S.
trading today, on more short covering in a bear market.
Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage
as a two-month-old downtrend line is in place on the daily
bar chart. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at 79.50 and then at 79.75. Shorter-term support
is seen at the overnight low of 79.15 and then at 79.00.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today as bulls have faded
badly this week. In October Nymex crude, look for buy stops
to reside just above resistance at $95.00 and then at
$96.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $94.56 and then at $94.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading, on short covering
and bargain hunting. Soybean bulls were fading and needed
to show fresh power. With harvest pressure occurring in
corn and soybeans, there are still ideas market tops in the
grain futures are in place. Focus is now more on the demand
prospects for U.S. grain, now that traders are getting a
somewhat better handle on the U.S. supply.
 

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