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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--September 19

Sep 19, 2011

Monday, September 19--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The EU debt crisis remains in the financial news headlines to start the new trading week. Worries that Greece could default on a debt payment as soon as this week have the world stock markets under pressure again Monday. It's starting out as a "risk off" day in the market place, and that's bearish for many markets, including stocks and commodities. Perceived safe-haven assets gold, the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries are all seeing buying support early today. Focus is also on this week's FOMC meeting, which ends Wednesday and could see the Federal Reserve announce further monetary stimulus measures.--Jim

STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in last week's high of 1,213.50 and then at 1,229.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,186.80 and then at 1,176.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,288.00 and then at 2,300.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,264.00 and then at 2,250.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,250 and then more stops just below support at 11,200. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 11,350 and then at 11,400. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 140 31/32 and then at 141 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 140 1/32 and then at 139 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

 

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 130.07.5 and then at 130.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 129.27.0 and then at 129.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 77.79 and then at 78.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 77.45 and then at 77.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading weaker early today. A five-week-old uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart, but just barely as the bulls have faded a bit just recently. In October crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $88.00 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $86.35 and then at $86.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading, amid bearish key "outside markets" early today--higher dollar index, weaker crude oil prices and weaker U.S. stock indexes. Grain market bulls are fading and need to show fresh power early this week to avoid more significant near-term technical damage being inflicted. Traders at present are choosing to pay more attention to the key outside markets than they are the grain market supply and demand fundamentals.


 

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