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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--September 20

Sep 20, 2012

Thursday, September 20--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, the much-anticipated HSBC China
manufacturing PMI came in at a reading of 47.8 in the latest
month, which was the eleventh straight month of contraction
in the country’s manufacturing sector. Asian stock markets
fell on the China news, while raw commodity markets were
also seeing some selling pressure on the weak China data.
The market place is also uneasy regarding a serious dispute
between China and Japan regarding ownership of a small chain
of islands. Meantime, a closely watched Spanish government
debt auction went off well Thursday amid good investor
demand. The recent pledge by the European Central Bank to
backstop the troubled EU nations’ debt auctions has injected
some stability into the EU financial system. However,
offsetting that positive EU news was more generally dour
economic data coming out of Europe Thursday. U.S. economic
data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless
claims report, the U.S. flash manufacturing PMI, leading
economic indicators, and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve
business outlook survey.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s
high of 1,459.20 and then at last week’s high of 1,467.50.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at the overnight
low of 1,445.30 and then at 1,428.50. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at the overnight high
of 2,858.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of 2,866.25. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at this week’s low of
2,838.25 and then at 2,825.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at this week’s low of 13,450 and then at 13,400. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
13,500 and then at Wednesday’s high of 13,555. Shorter-term
moving averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer today and seeing
more short covering and bargain hunting after hitting a
four-month low on Monday. Bulls are regaining upside near-
term technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 147 18/32 and then
at 148 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 147 even and
then at the overnight low of 146 18/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: More short covering and bargain
hunting are featured today as bulls regain upside momentum.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 132.28.0 and then at 133.00.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 132.12.5 and then at
132.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S.
trading today, on more short covering in a bear market.
Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage
as a two-month-old downtrend line is still in place on the
daily bar chart. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are
bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 79.69 and then
at 80.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 79.41 and then at
the overnight low of 79.13. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker again early today and hit a
fresh six-week low overnight as bulls have faded badly this
week. In November Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at the overnight high of $92.47 and
then at $93.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at the overnight low of $90.96 and then at $90.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were weaker in overnight trading, following the
weak China economic data overnight and amid bearish outside
markets—a higher U.S. dollar index and weaker crude oil
prices. Traders this morning will closely scrutinize the
weekly USDA export sales data. With harvest pressure
occurring in corn and soybeans, there are still ideas
market tops in the grain futures are in place. Focus is now
more on the demand prospects for U.S. grain, now that
traders are getting a somewhat better handle on the U.S.
supply.
 

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