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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--September 24

Sep 24, 2012

Monday, September 24--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

It’s a “risk-off” day in the world market place Monday. Not
surprising to many, the glow of the recent monetary stimulus
measures by the major central banks of the world is fading
and focus is now moving back to worrisome global economic
growth prospects. There was fresh, weak economic data coming
out of Germany Monday, as well as renewed worries about
Spain and Greece and those countries’ abilities to service
their debt burden. Germany’s closely watched Ifo report
showed business confidence down for the fifth month in a
row. Spain has yet to formally request bailout funds from
the European Union. Greece is preparing to ask the EU for
more funding as a German magazine said Greece’s budget
deficit may be double what was previously thought. There
were also reports that German and French officials cannot
agree upon a plan of action for dealing with the EU debt
crisis. And in China, an advisor to that country’s central
bank made more downbeat comments about China’s economic
growth prospects. The European and U.S. stock markets
slumped and the Euro currency weakened on the fresh news
coming out of the European Union and China.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,453.20 and then at last week’s high of 1,461.50. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at last week’s low of
1,443.80 and then at 1,428.50. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
4.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,857.25 and
then at last week’s high of 2,871.75. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at last week’s low of 2,837.25 and then at
2,825.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at last week’s low of 13,432 and then at 13,400. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
13,500 and then at 13,550. Shorter-term moving averages are
still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is
above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher today on some fresh
safe-haven demand. Bulls are regaining some upside near-term
technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 147 23/32 and then at 148 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at 147 even and then at the overnight low of
146 29/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today on
safe-haven demand. Bulls have regained some upside
momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 133.00.0 and then at
133.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
132.20.5 and then at 132.16.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S.
trading today, on short covering and some safe-haven demand.
Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage
as a nine-week-old downtrend line is still in place on the
daily bar chart. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are
bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 79.79 and then
at 80.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low
of 79.42 and then at Friday’s low of 79.11. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today as bears have
downside near-term technical momentum. In November Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
$92.50 and then at the overnight high of $93.18. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low
of $91.34 and then at last week’s low of $90.96. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were lower in overnight trading. The key “outside
markets” are in a bearish posture for the grain markets
today, as the U.S. dollar index is lower and crude oil
prices are higher. Corn and soybean bulls have faded. With
harvest pressure occurring in corn and soybeans, there are
ideas market tops in the grain futures are in place.
 

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