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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--September 25

Sep 25, 2012

Tuesday, September 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

There is a bit more of a “risk-on” trader mentality Tuesday
morning, following the keener risk aversion in the market
place that was seen on Monday. In overnight developments
there was nothing major or market-moving. There was a more
upbeat consumer confidence report coming out of Germany,
following recent weaker data coming from the European
Union’s largest economy. Reports said Spain will announce a
new budget and reform plan on Thursday, while Greece will do
the same later this week. U.S. economic data due for release
Tuesday includes the Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook
weekly retail sales reports, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price
index, the Richmond Fed business activity survey, the
monthly house price index, and the consumer confidence
index.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,456.20 and then at last week’s high of 1,461.50. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at last week’s low of
1,443.80 and then at 1,428.50. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
5.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at Monday’s high of 2,857.25 and then
at last week’s high of 2,871.75. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at the overnight low of 2,838.00 and then at
Monday’s low of 2,826.25. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Monday’s low of 13,450 and then at last week’s
low of 13,432. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at Monday’s high of 13,530 and then at 13,550.
Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today,
as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher today on some fresh
safe-haven demand. Bulls have regained upside near-term
technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 148 13/32 and then at 149 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at 148 even and then at the overnight low of
147 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today on
safe-haven demand. Bulls have regained upside momentum.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 133.06.5 and then at 133.16.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 132.28.0 and then at Monday’s
low of 132.20.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S.
trading today, on more short covering and some safe-haven
demand. Bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage as a nine-week-old downtrend line is still in
place on the daily bar chart. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 79.82
and then at 80.00. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s
low of 79.42 and then at 79.11. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bears still have
some downside near-term technical momentum. A bearish
pennant pattern may be forming on the daily bar chart. In
November Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $93.84 and then at $94.40. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at the overnight low of
$91.80 and then at last week’s low of $90.96. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading, on some short
covering and perceived bargain hunting. Corn and soybean
bulls have faded recently. With harvest pressure occurring
in corn and soybeans, there are ideas market tops in the
grain futures are in place. Wheat bulls are hanging
tougher.
 

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