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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--September 30

Sep 30, 2011

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Today could be an extra important trading day in the market place. It's the last day of the week, last trading day of the month and last trading day of the quarter. Many fund managers may do some book-squaring or window dressing to their portfolios today. With all that said, such activity may or may not significantly impact any particular market. Most markets are so broad and liquid that such adjustments are easily absorbed with little notice.--Jim

STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,159.60 and then at Thursday's high of 1,170.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Thursday's low of 1,133.50 and then at 1,125.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 2,185.00 and then at the overnight high of 2,198.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Thursday's low of 2,152.50 and then at 2,134.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Thursday's low of 10,895 and then more stops just below support at 10,850. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 11,000 and then at 11,050. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term support lies at 141 16/32 and then at the overnight low of 141 4/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 142 16/32 and then at 143 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

 

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 130.16.0 and then at this week's high of 131.03.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 129.20.0 and then at this week's low of 129.06.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week's high of 79.64 and then at 80.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 78.50 and then at the overnight low of 78.37. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading weaker early today, as trading has become choppy this week. Look for more choppy, sideways range trading in the near term. In November crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $82.00 and then at $82.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $81.00 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading as the key "outside markets" were bearish for grains--higher U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil and stock index futures prices. Traders will closely scrutinize this morning's USDA quarterly grain stocks report. Look for more active trading Friday, in the wake of this report.


 

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