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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--September 4

Sep 04, 2012

Tuesday, September 4--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Following last Friday’s commodity and stock market bullish
comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke at in Jackson Hole,
Wyoming, the eyes of the market place are now focused on
later this week, when the monthly meeting of the European
Central Bank takes place on Thursday. It’s expected the ECB
will announce a fresh EU monetary stimulus plan. ECB
President Mario Draghi said overnight the central bank’s
purchase of short-dated government bonds are within the
bank’s mandate. On Friday the important U.S. jobs report is
released. Asian markets were lower overnight following more
downbeat economic news coming out of China. The HSBC’s China
purchasing managers index in August fell to its lowest level
since 2009. European markets were little changed ahead of
the ECB meeting Thursday. Spanish and Italian bond yields
were lower overnight, on some building optimism the EU debt
crisis may at least be stabilizing a bit. In other overnight
news, European Union consumer price inflation in July rose
at a higher rate than expected, at a 1.8% annual rate.
However, that figure is still low and will not likely have
any effect on European Central Bank monetary policy
decisions.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s
high of 1,415.90 and then at the August high of 1,424.60.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at last week’s
low of 1,395.40 and then at 1,385.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,782.75 and
then at last week’s high of 2,795.75. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 2,759.75 and then at
last week’s low of 2,745.25. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Friday’s low of 13,015 and then at last week’s
low of 12,965. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at Friday’s high of 13,140 and then at 13,200.
Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices poked to a fresh four-week
high overnight. Bulls still have some upside near-term
technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies
at the overnight high of 151 29/32 and then at 152 even. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies the overnight low of 150 30/32 and
then at 150 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight and last week’s high of 133.26.5 and then at
134.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
133.14.0 and then at 133.00.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S.
trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage as a six-week-old downtrend line is in place on
the daily bar chart. The DX on Friday closed at a
technically bearish monthly low close. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at 81.95 and then at
last week’s high of 82.13. Shorter-term support is seen at
last week’s low of 81.30 and then at 81.00. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. In October Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
the overnight high of $97.37 and then at the August high of
$98.29. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $96.01 and then at $95.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading, with soybean
futures prices hitting a fresh all-time record high
overnight. Grain market bulls have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage and are feeling the bullish
effects of Fed Chairman Bernanke’s market-bullish speech in
Jackson Hole, Wyoming last Friday. The major U.S. drought
continues to be a bullish underlying factor for the grains.
But focus is now less on the reduced supply and more on the
demand prospects with the sharply higher grain prices.
 

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