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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--September 6

Sep 06, 2012

Thursday, September 6--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Thursday’s monthly meeting of the European Central Bank was
imminent as of this writing. It was widely expected the ECB
would announce a fresh EU monetary stimulus plan by
purchasing government bonds, which would likely be at least
initially commodity and stock market bullish.  European
stock markets and the precious metals were higher on the
expected ECB bond buying program. Spanish and Italian bond
yields also declined Thursday. On Friday the important U.S.
jobs report is released. Many believe a weak jobs report on
Friday would open the door wide for a fresh U.S. monetary
stimulus announcement by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC
meeting in two weeks. In other overnight news there was more
weak economic data released from Europe Thursday. The
collective Euro zone gross domestic product fell by 0.2% in
the second quarter, for an annualized decline of 0.7%. Also,
EU consumers reduced their purchases by 0.2% in the second
quarter. EU businesses cut their spending by 0.8% in the
same time period. Meantime, the Bank of England left its
monetary policy unchanged, the BOE said in a statement.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of
1,415.90 and then at the August high of 1.424.60. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at the overnight low of
1,403.50 and then at last week’s low of 1,395.40. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at last week’s high of 2,795.75 and
then at the August high of 2,802.50. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at the overnight low of 2,766.50 and then at
Wednesday’s low of 2,757.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 13,085 and then at 13,050. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 13,150 and then at
13,200. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 150 28/32 and then at 151 even. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 150 8/32 and
then at 150 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 133.12.5 and then at 133.16.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.05.0 and
then at 133.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early
U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage as a six-week-old downtrend line is in place on
the daily bar chart. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.60 and then
at this week’s high of 81.95. Shorter-term support is seen
at the overnight low of 81.40 and then at last week’s low of
81.30. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. In October Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
$96.00 and then at $97.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at the overnight low of $95.73 and then at
$95.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed but mostly higher in overnight trading.
Grain market bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. While the major U.S. drought continues
to be a bullish underlying factor for the grains, focus is
now less on the reduced supply and more on the demand
prospects with the sharply higher grain prices.
 

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