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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Monday, October 10

Oct 10, 2011

Monday, October 10--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

It’s a "risk on" day in the market place Monday as
the start of the new trading week finds most
commodity markets and the U.S. stock indexes
posting solid gains. News over the weekend that
France and German government leaders have pledged
to shore up the European Union’s debt problem in
strong fashion has put some investor confidence
back into the market place. There are now very
early clues that many commodity markets and the
stock indexes have bottomed out and could trend
sideways to higher in to the end of the year.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at Friday’s high of 1,173.50
and then at 1,189.80. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at the overnight low of
1,156.80 and then at 1,129.20. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 2,235.00 and then
at 2,250.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at the overnight low of 2,203.00 and then
at Friday's low of 2,183.75. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at 11,160 and then more stops
just below support at 11,100. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 11,250
and then at 11,300. Shorter-term moving averages
are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bullish. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Bulls are fading. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bearish early today. Shorter-term support lies
at 139 26/32 and then at 139 16/32. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term
technical resistance lies at 140 16/32 and then at
141 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 128.29.0 and then at 129.00.0.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at 128.00.0 and
then at 127.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is sharply lower in
early trading today. Bulls have faded badly
recently. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are
bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at 78.50 and then
at 79.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 78.15 and then at 78.00. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading higher early today.
The bulls have gained good upside technical
momentum to suggest prices last week put in a near-
term low and that prices can continue to trend
sideways to higher. In November crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at the
overnight high of $84.72 and then at $85.00. Look
for sell stops just below technical support at
$83.50 and then at the overnight low of $82.75.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were mostly solidly higher in overnight
trading. The key "outside markets" are in a bullish
posture for the grains this morning, as the U.S.
dollar index is sharply lower, while crude oil and
the U.S. stock indexes are higher. It is looking
more like "harvest lows" are in place for the
grains.

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