Aug 31, 2014
Home | Tools| Events| Blogs| Discussions Sign UpLogin

AgDay Blog


Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Tuesday, October 4--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

Oct 04, 2011

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The past few weeks have seen most commodity markets turn from
near-term bullish to near-term bearish, from a technical standpoint.
This quick change in the market place caught most traders off guard.
Now, it's very tempting for some traders to want to try to bottom pick
the beaten down commodity markets, thinking they are getting a
bargain buy. The problem is that most traders who try to pick a
bottom are not successful.--Jim

STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are hovering near the August low. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,094.00 and then at
1,102.40. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at the August low of
1,076.10 and then at 1,050.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of
2,077.00 and then at 2,100.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 2,049.00 and then at 2,022.25. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0

Dow futures: Prices hit a fresh 12-month low overnight. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at 10,400 and then more
stops just below support at 10,350. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at 10,500 and then at 10,530. Shorter-term
moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term support
lies at 145 even and then at 144 even. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 146 even
and then at the contract high of 147 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the contract high of 131.30.0 and then
at 132.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at 130.16.0 and then at 130.00.0. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today and hit
another fresh 7.5-month high overnight. Bulls remain powerful. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.43
and then at 80.75. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low
of 79.99 and then at 79.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading lower early today and hit a fresh 16-month
low overnight. Bears have regained downside technical momentum
recently. In November crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $77.00 and then at $77.50. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $75.00 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading. The key "outside markets" are
again bearish for grains--higher U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil
and stock index futures prices. Grain traders are still reeling from last
Friday's bearish USDA quarterly grain stocks report. I do look for
"harvest lows" to be put in place for the grains in the near term.


Log In or Sign Up to comment

COMMENTS

No comments have been posted, be the first one to comment.

MARKETS

CROPSLIVESTOCKFINANCEENERGYMETALS
Market Data provided by Barchart.com
Enter Zip Code below to view live local results:
bayer
 
 
The Home Page of Agriculture
© 2014 Farm Journal, Inc. All Rights Reserved|Web site design and development by AmericanEagle.com|Site Map|Privacy Policy|Terms & Conditions