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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Wednesday, October 5

Oct 05, 2011

Wednesday, October 5--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The commodity market sector is getting a boost
early today, as the U.S. dollar index trades lower.
However, the dollar index's recent strength and
present price uptrend on the daily chart is a major
bearish factor for most raw commodity markets. On
another matter, if the U.S. stock indexes can post
solid gains today, that would begin to suggest
near-term market lows are in place for the
indexes.--Jim

STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at this week's high of 1,133.00
and then at 1,150.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at the overnight low of
1,106.80 and then at 1,100.00. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at this week's high
of 2,148.00 and then at 2,175.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of
2,101.00 and then at 2,075.00. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at 10,700 and then more stops
just below support at 10,650. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 10,800
and then at 10,830. Shorter-term moving averages
are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bearish. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term support lies at the overnight low of 143 27/32
and then at 143 even. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Shorter-term technical
resistance lies at the overnight high of 144 25/32
and then at 145 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 130.23.5 and then at 131.00.0.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 130.10.5 and then at 130.00.0.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is lower in early
trading today and are seeing profit-taking pressure
from recent strong gains. Bulls remain powerful.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 79.87
and then at 80.00. Shorter-term support is seen at
this week's low of 79.30 and then at 79.00.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading solidly higher early
today, on short covering after prices hit a fresh
16-month low on Tuesday. Bears still have some
downside technical momentum. In November crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance
at the overnight high of $78.46 and then at $79.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$77.00 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were higher in overnight trading, on short
covering following recent losses. The key "outside
markets" are bullish for grains--lower U.S. dollar
index and higher crude oil and stock index futures
prices. I do look for "harvest lows" to be put in
place for the grains in the near term.

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