Sep 20, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Allendale Releases Corn Yield Estimate

Jul 24, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for July 24, 2014 at 5:30 am CDT.

Grain futures are higher as old crop soybeans lead the charge due to tight supplies and firm farmer holding. Corn and wheat are tagging along for the ride.

Rich Nelson releases Allendale’s estimate for US corn yield at 174.1 bushel per acre. He said "Our belief is that the trade is not trading a number this high." Talk to your Allendale Broker to get the strategies released at yesterday’s meeting.

The first 2 sessions have been well attended by traders and producers from all around the world. Remember it is not too late to get this information. The presentations were recorded and are available by clicking here.

8:00 AM Update - Morning Coffee Commentary:

The final session of Allendale’s Ag Leaders Conference "Summer Update" will start at 2:00 pm TODAY. Signup now!

Weekly export sale will be released at 7:30. Reuter’s survey estimates are:

              Trade estimates for      Trade estimates for

              2013-14                  2014-15:

Wheat         0                        350,000-550,000

Corn          300,000-500,000          400,000-600,000

Soybeans      150,000-250,000          1,200,000-1,450,000

Soymeal       50,000-150,000           150,000-250,000

Soyoil        0-20,000                 0-10,000

Ethanol production continues at an aggressive pace because of profitable crush. Last week ethanol production was 959,000 thousand barrels compared to previous week of 943,000.

Egypt had been tendering for wheat which they bought the cheapest priced from the Black Sea Region.

August grain options expire on Friday July, 25.

Cash grain bids were steady-lower on Wednesday with limited farmer selling. We are hearing farmers are taking the deferred pricing option (DP) which usually is not a bullish sign.

Scott O’Malia, a CFTC Commissioner announced on Monday he would leave his post on Aug. 8. The International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) said yesterday that he would become the trade group’s next chief executive officer on Aug. 18.

October live cattle put in a hook reversal on the charts, Wednesday. However the strong cash market is providing support and a retest of yesterday’s highs overnight. Technical support is the 20 day moving average of 154.30. August futures contract should be well supported as cash trade this week could be several dollars higher than a week ago. The USDA July 1 Cattle on Feed report will be released on Friday afternoon.

Wall Street Journal survey:  

                    Average           Range

                    of estimates      of estimates

On-feed Jul 1       98.2              97.2- 99.2

Placed in Jun       95.6              91.9- 103.5

Marketed in Jun     98.1              97.0- 100.4

Beef values are mixed with choice down .21 and select was up 2.92. The CME Feeder index is 210.64.

Lean hog futures took a tumble yesterday. Market ready hog supplies are tight but not as tight as many traders thought. Hog carcass weights are 10 pounds heavier than last year which is making up for the numbers decline. The technical picture has turned weak and a close above Monday’s low of 111.15 in the October contract is needed to keep the uptrend intact. Pork cutout values are down 1.24.

Markets as of 5:30 AM CDT          

  • Sep Corn   +2 1/2
  • Aug Beans   +14 1/4
  • Sep Wheat   +5 3/4
  • Aug Cattle  +1.87   
  • Aug Hogs    -.75
  • Sep Dlr     -.04
  • Sep S&P     +2.00
  • Sep Crude   -.33
  • Aug Gold   -4.70 

Chart of the Day

daily chart

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

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