Oct 1, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Beans Leading The Charge

Apr 16, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for April 16, 2014 at 4:30 am.  

Grain futures are mixed as demand for old crop soybeans provides the support.

The NOPA crush number was a surprise for traders as the average estimate was 146.1 million bushels and the high estimate 150 million bushels. The actual March usage was 153.84 million bushels. This is 12% above a year ago with an average for the year up 2%. The USDA balance sheet estimate is for soybean crush to be down 0.2%. Needless to say the May Supply and Demand table will be much anticipated.

The impact on winter wheat crop from the recent frost in the southern plains is yet to be determined.  

Unrest in Ukraine has wheat traders on edge as Ukraine has deployed troops to the area where Russian dissidents are controlling government buildings. However the Eastern region of Ukraine is more of a corn producing area and spring planting should be getting started.

There is more talk that China canceled a couple of cargoes of soybeans from Brazil. Those cargoes are thought to be offered to East Coast buyers in the US.

Brazilian farmers took advantage of yesterday’s rally in soybeans and were aggressive sellers. US farmers were light sellers at the $15.00 level.

Markets are closed on Friday for Good Friday observance. Monday is "Patriots Day" in Boston where this year is more significant due to the bombing a year ago. Easter Monday is an observed holiday in many countries around the world. Will Managed Money be a large participant in the markets to start the week?

Funds bought a net 8,000 contracts of wheat and 9,000 contracts of soybeans. They were estimated as being even on corn.

Weather forecasts are setting up for clear and drying conditions next week which will allow for some planters to go to the field.

Beef cutout values showed improvement on Tuesday as choice was up .34 and select was up 1.09. The CME Feeder index is 179.75.  Cash cattle are expected to be lower this week. Traders are hoping to see an improvement in product next week as retailers start building inventory for cookout season.

Lean Hog futures are not for the weak of heart or the shallow pockets. We expect to see more volatility ahead of the long weekend. The battle line is drawn between less hogs due to PEDv and high priced pork at the retail counter. Pork cutout values are down 2.68.

Markets as of 4:30 AM

  • May Corn    – 3/4
  • May Beans   +16
  • May Wheat   – 1/2
  • Jun Cattle  +.20
  • Jun Hogs    -1.07
  • Jun Dlr     -.10
  • Jun S&P     +8.75
  • May Crude   +.88
  • Jun Gold    -1.40

 Chart of the Day

daily chart

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