Sep 23, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Can Drop In Western Crop Ratings Change Price Outlook?

Jul 16, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for July 16, 2013 at 4:45 am.  Grain futures are higher on the crop conditions downgrade. The USDA crop condition report confirmed a drop in G/E rating for corn and soybeans. Most of the deterioration came in the western states of Kansas (-9%),  Nebraska (-5%) and Missouri (-4%). According to Allendale’s calculation a drop of 15% from trend yield in those states may only impact the ending stocks for corn by 200 million bushels. There also are states where crops are improving and could offset some of the loss. The USDA has to face the facts sooner or later on old crop soybean usage and supplies. The NOPA crush data was 2 million bushel greater than trade estimates. This means, in order to achieve the USDA balance sheet numbers, soybeans for crushing must be 23% below last year for the final 2 months of the marketing year. Soybean exports are 1.305 billion bushel (already been shipped out) of USDA forecast of 1.330 billion bushel for this marketing year 2012/13. Weather has improved for winter wheat harvest however the July 15 date maybe the last day for double crop bean planting. Contact your Allendale Representative to work out a pricing strategy. Weather forecasts have cooled off for the eastern portion of the cornbelt during the 10 to 15 day period where a majority of the US corn crop is expected to pollinate. Help us with the survey and let us know how corn maturity is progressing in your area. Fed Chairman Bernanke will be testifying in front of the Senate and House later this week. Traders will be watching for any hint of change in policy. Livestock markets found support on Monday from fund buying. Packer margins continue to erode with choice beef down .83 and select up .27. Pork cutout values were down .41 on Monday. The feeder cattle index was up 2.39 to 144.79. The recent USDA report has shed some light on beef supplies for the 4th quarter of 2013 and 1st quarter of 2014. They are projecting beef production to be down 5.7% and 6.1% respectively. Register Now for the July Ag Leaders Webinar on July 22, 2013.

In what timeframe will your corn tassel and pollinate? Take the survey here.

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • Dec #Corn    +7 1/2
  • Nov #Beans   +9 1/4
  • Sep #Wheat   +5
  • Aug #Cattle  +.20
  • Aug #Hogs    +.10
  • Sep Dlr     -.08
  • Sep S&P     +.25
  • Aug Crude   +.20
  • Aug Gold    +2.20


View Today’s Chart of the Day

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