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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Drier Forecast Spooks Buyers

May 06, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 6, 2013 at 5:15 am. Grain futures are lower. Less rain than expected over the weekend and more open weather this week has buyers turning into sellers. This week traders are battling the weather and the May 10, 2013 Supply and Demand report. The weather forecast has dried up some for this week and models are conflicting on what path the next system will be taking. The report on Friday will be the first look at what the USDA is thinking for new corn and soybeans. It is anticipated by traders that it will be bearish. The USDA does, however, have a history of adjusting yield on this report due to late planting progress. This afternoon the planting progress is estimated to be between 12 and 18% depending how much you think got planted before the rain and snow. Last week we had 5% planted and average is 47%. It is likely we will get a soybean planting number today and estimates are 3% planted versus 12% average. Managed funds bought a net 33,258 corn contracts last week while adding 17,605 soybeans and 15,091 wheat. They are now only net short 5,779 wheat contracts. Brazil reports April bean exports late on Friday with a surprising 8.23 mmt versus the prior record of 5.9 mmt. We would have to anticipate May and June loading to be large as well. US basis remains strong which should support old crop grain contracts. Problems between the grain companies and longshoreman are heating up again in PNW. One company locked out its workers on Saturday. Choice beef rose to new all-time highs as retailers prepared for a nice weekend for grilling and they are starting to book supplies for the Memorial Day demand. Boxed beef closed mixed on Friday with choice up 1.10 and select down .51. The feeder index closed at 135.67 down .20. Pork values were .32. Get the full story by subscribing to the Allendale Advisory Report.

 Markets as of 5:15 AM

  • Jul #Corn    -15 1/4
  • Jul #Beans   + 3/4
  • Jul #Wheat   – 9 3/4
  • Jun #Cattle  Steady-Lower
  • Jun #Hogs    Steady-Lower
  • Jun Dlr     +.04
  • Jun S&P     +.25
  • Jun Crude   +.64
  • Jun Gold    +11.60


View the Chart of the Day

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538

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