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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Macro Markets Influence Grains

Mar 19, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 19, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grains futures are higher, supported by bull spreading in corn. The outside markets are impacting the strength of the US Dollar and investors' willingness to support corn and soybean futures. The Cyprus bank situation is likely to go on for a while as their banks are closed until Thursday. Early estimates for the quarterly Stock Report seem to have the corn stocks number around 5 billion bushels and soybeans in the 930 to 950 area. At our weekly research meeting, Rich Nelson, Allendale’s Chief Strategist discussed the tight supply of US old crop soybeans. Currently soybean crush is running 8% above a year ago. The USDA is projecting 2012/13 crush to be 5% below last year. This means in order to achieve the USDA goal we need to run 14% below last year for the balance of the year. We also need to sell another 75 million bushels of soybeans to reach the USDA export goals. The old crop/new crop soybean spread has narrowed about 50 cents since March 11. We are looking for an entry point opportunity in this spread. The price relationship between corn and wheat has end-users talking about using more wheat in rations due to the availability of corn. Although it is the middle of March, traders are getting concerned about timelines of corn planting in the Midwest. A recent weather map is showing that much of the cornbelt has received some moisture to replenish soil conditions. Technical points to watch are the 5.70 level in Dec Corn for resistance and the 12.50 support area in November soybeans. Livestock futures continue to struggle due to product demand. Boxed beef prices were mixed on Monday with choice up .08 and select down .22. The feeder index was set at 137.19 unchanged from Friday. Pork cutout values were up .53 on Monday. You are welcome to listen to the Allendale Acreage Survey Results Webinar by going to www.allendale-inc.com.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • May Corn    +2 3/4
  • May Beans   +3 3/4
  • May Wheat   +2 1/2
  • Apr Cattle  -.15
  • Apr Hogs    -.12
  • Jun Dlr     +.05
  • Jun S&P     -.25
  • Apr Crude   +.01
  • Apr Gold    -2.50

 

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

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