The Allendale Wake-Up Call
Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
Markets Drift Lower Overnight
Aug 19, 2014
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary at 4:45 am.
Grain futures are lower as traders can’t seem to find supportive news. Weather forecasts remain beneficial for finishing out a record production.
Traders Focus Today: Crop tours by news media and industry participants. Trade is waiting for final numbers on Friday.
Allendale’s 25th Annual Yield Survey is underway. We will be taking producer information through August 29th and will release the findings on September 3rd.
ProFarmer Midwest crop tour projects Ohio corn yield at 182.11 bushels per acre, up from tour estimate of 171.64 bpa last year and three-year tour average of 146.13. The South Dakota corn crop was estimated to be smaller than last year but above the 5 year average.
Update - Morning Coffee Commentary:
The Midwest crop tour projects Ohio average soybean pod count at 1,342.42 pods in 3-foot area, up from 1,283.61 last year and three-year tour average of 1,190.18 pods. South Dakota soybeans had more pods than last year.
Not everyone is having a bumper crop this year. A customer of Allendale sent pictures of his cornfields in south central MN where he is expecting yields less than in 1988 because of no rain since mid-June.
Corn crop conditions dropped 1 point to 72% good/excellent according to the USDA. Corn in the dough stage is at 70% verses the 5-year average of 63%, and corn dented estimated at 22% vs. 5-year average of 27%.
Soybean crop conditions improve by 1 point to 71% good/excellent. Pod setting is 83% vs. the 5-year of 79%, and blooming was 95% which was right at the 5-year average.
Weekly crop progress showed spring wheat is 17% harvested vs. the 5-year average of 33%. The un-harvested crop was 68% good/excellent conditions, down 2 points from last week.
Weekly corn export inspections were 970.8 TMT above expectations of 775 to 925 TMT. Soybean export inspections were in line with expectations of 56.2 TMT. Wheat export inspections are running 30.4% behind a year ago.
Stats Canada will release their production numbers on Thursday.
The German Farmers Association is estimating the German wheat crop at 26.2 MMT up from 24.6 MMT in 2013.
Pork cutout values continue their slide on Monday by being down .78 to 111.02. Lean Hog futures traders are looking for a short covering bounce as technical indicators are oversold.
Market ready cattle supplies are tight but weights are growing. Futures prices are at a discount which should provide some support. Beef prices remain weak with choice down .44 and select down 1.81. The CME Feeder Index is 220.75.
Markets as of 4:45 AM CDT
Dec Corn -4 1/2
Nov Beans -8
Sep Wheat -4 1/2
Sep Dlr +.10
Sep S&P +3.25
Sep Crude +.26
Oct Gold +2.10
Chart of the Day
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