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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Profit Taking Ahead of Weekend Headline Jitters

Nov 30, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 30, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains futures are lower this morning on profit taking and no new fundamental news. The CME announced overnight deliveries against the December contracts. There were 246 corn deliveries through July 10, 2012. Soybean oil had 2200 contracts delivered. Spreaders will be adjusting positions today as it is the time of the month when index funds roll from January to a deferred month. Rogers Fund has 2 more days then the Goldman Fund will start their roll next week. Farmer selling is basically non-existent. We expect this to continue through mid-December when farmers start moving grain to fill early 2013 contracts. Mississippi River basis was firm for soybeans and a little weaker for corn on Thursday. The Buenos Aries Exchange has estimated that 52.4% of the Argentine corn acreage has been planted which lags last year by 12.4%. They are estimating that 45.2% of the soybean acreage in Argentina has been planted which is behind last year by 11%. There have been more news reports suggesting Argentina farmers will plant more bean acres if the heavy rains that are forecasted hit the grain growing area this weekend. Spreaders will likely be a dominant factor as we go into the weekend. There will be more spin on the fiscal cliff negotiations which could affect the Sunday afternoon opening. Funds sold 7,000 corn, 3,000 wheat and bought 2,000 soybeans and meal. Poor margins and their ability to call in previously contracted cattle have packers lowering bids after early week purchases. The trade was expecting a much better performance in product this week. Choice was up .30 and select down .83. Technical indicators are suggesting an overbought condition. Cash hogs slipped today in the IA-MN market on light volume. Traders are worried about the premium of Dec futures to cash index. Pork cutout values were down .52. Look for more spread activity as we close out the week. Get all the price outlooks for 2013 at the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on January 25 and 26, 2013. Reserve your seat TODAY
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    -2
Jan Beans   -11 1/2
Dec Wheat   -8 3/4
Dec Cattle -.20
Dec Hogs    -.22
Dec Dlr     -.06
Dec S+P     +1.50
Jan Crude   +.11
Dec Gold    +2.70
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Feb Lean Hogs is continuing to trade in its sharp upward channel. One thing that bulls of this market should be concerned with is we are struggling to find new buyers above $88.00.  In order to assume that we are beginning to see a top in this market I would like to see a close below $85.45…Frank La Placa 
 
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
China: Soybean buyers tell Reuters newswire they have another 3 to 4 million tonnes of soybeans to buy for first quarter needs. Crush margins have begun to improve in front of the coming peak demand period.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

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